Tuesday, February 02, 2021

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Coming Back

It appears that the big dip we saw in Antarctic sea ice extent starting in 2015 may have just been a temporarily nonlinearity, or something related to the monster 2015-16 El Nino, or god's fury, because the ice is coming back:

where the data is from the NSIDC. So curb your enthusiasm. Maybe we have to resort again -- now that the data is again against us, how's that for playing the odds again, ha ha -- looking at the prediction of increased Antarctic sea ice with increasing CO2 and global warming by Manabe et al in 1991:

"Transient Responses of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric CO2: Annual Mean Response," S Manabe et al, J Climate v4, Aug 1991 p785-818. (pg 795 in particular)

"The increased supply of fresh surface water from both land-bound ice melt and increased precipitation increases the halocline gradient, which reduces upwelling of warmer bottom waters, decreasing sea surface temperature, and thus leading to more sea ice."


In any case, the Antarctic sea ice looks to be coming back.

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