October's temperature anomaly, relative to 1850-1990, from Copernicus:
For annual temperatures. 2024 is through October; year-to-date anomaly=1.59°C. This will likely be the first year the annual temperature is above 1.5°C. (Last year it was 1.48°C.) Nov24 and Dec24 have to average 1.06°C or higher for the year to be 1.5°C. Seems very likely.
I wish they wouldn't color the tops (halfway through and higher) with darker orange, bordering on red; it biases the view. Just use one solid color and let us draw our own conclusions.
12 comments:
I literally feel like we are in a collapse. Even seemingly simple things are getting impossible. I mean we have the vaccine and somehow most people are not vaccinated. We have the solution in hand, for gods sake! And we can't even use it. Here comes climate change that is not a simple thing to tackle. But we, instead of effectively solving it, are just procrastinating.
PS: I can understand an American feeling the way you described. But it's surprising a Canadian does also.
PPS: Except for the vaccine issue. That's just ridiculous no matter what country you're in. [Though again I would expect Canada to do better :) ]
It is not just Copernicus.
The Giss year-to-date anomaly is 1.28C. That is against a 1951-1980 baseline of 14.0C.
GISS estimate a pre-industrial temperature of 13.8C That makes 2024 to date 1.48C above pre-industrial.
Stupidity has always been universal. But most of the time it wasn't allowed to gain space. Nowadays it permeates everything. This anti-vaxx thing was considered typically American even 20 years ago. Together with climate change denial and a whole lot of other anti-scientific topics (creationism, blablabla). Now 300 people are suing the German government for vaccine side effects and the social media crowd is jubilant. All the while we know that actual proven side effects are exceedingly rare. (Sorry for this vaccine thing, the pandemic was an eye opener for me.) As for climate we should've taken steps in the 90s or early 2000s the latest. We haven't even started it. (What we have today is more like a substitute for real action, especially solar and lithium with their enormous carbon and pollution footprint.)
EM: thanks for that
Anon: very well put
There's also this from Zeke Hausfather.
https://skepticalscience.com/2024-above-15C.html
Industry has spent decades telling people that science lies about lead, sulfur, ozone, CO2 and so on. Now the movement has gained its own momentum and people distrust medical science too without encouragement from lobby campaigns. At the contrary, for industry having employees sick is a big loss, but they are no longer in control of the monster they helped create.
Anon: I am amazed (and disheartened) when I read comments on Facebook posts and see how many people just flat out deny everything scientific or medical, or simply dismiss it as a hoax, created because "they" want to control you.... Hurricane Helene was created by HAARP, you know, because "they" can control the weather and use it to control us.
Thanks EM. Of course, we all know that nothing sudden happens at exactly 1.5 C. But some in the public probably don't know, and perhaps this year being above the Paris threshold will inspire action.
Also, horses will fly any day now.
What concerns me is the curve. Is warming really accelerating that quickly?
I think any acceleration is exaggerated by the exceptional warmth of the last two years. I calculate acceleration for the GISS dataset, which starts in 1880, and it's currently at 0.019 C/decade^2. Certainly not nothing. I don't know how good the quadratic fit is or how its value since, say, 1970. Someday.
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