Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Who's Winning the Election ?!?

I'm thinking that the best way to gauge the presidential election in real time might by following the betting markets. After all, these traders are buying and selling in real time based on whatever scraps of information (or rumors or gossip or misinformation) they can find. These markets were skewed for the last few weeks because some big buyers ("whales") were buying a lot of Trump shares, raising the price dramatically (and, some think, giving Trump another excuse to dispute the election). But now that it's push-come-to-shove that should be over and they're looking to make money based on reality and the whatever "information" is available to them.

With that, here's how the PredictIt Presidential Market has been going today. Trump is up, but the difference is now trending down.


Of course, the site has their own graph which is updated in real time:



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