October and Annual Update for Berkeley Earth: about 1.6°C

Some interesting graphs.

The surge in 2023 and then 2024 really is extraordinary. For the month:

and for their entire record:

Here's BE's prediction for the year: well above 1.5°C.

2025 is going to be very interesting. Will its temperature anomaly stay aloft like 2023 and 2024, or will it decline three- or four-tenths of a degree Celsius? It will likely depend on the ENSO-state, but the last ENSO prediction I saw had significantly lower probabilities of a La Nina emerging by September.... 

Two days ago the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University issued its latest November 2024 ENSO Forecast (emphasis mine):

According to the ENSO forecast issued by the IRI in November 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions are favored (52% probability) for Nov-Jan 2025, while the likelihood of La Niña emerging has decreased to 48%. For December-February 2025, the probability of sea surface temperatures reaching La Niña thresholds is 50%, while the likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions is estimated at 49%. From Jan-Mar 2025 to the end of the forecast period in Jul-Sep 2025, ENSO-neutral conditions are favored, with probabilities ranging from 51% to 77%, while La Niña probabilities during the same period are estimated between 18% and 42%. The probability of El Niño remains very low throughout the forecast period, staying below 10% until April-June 2025, and gradually increasing to 24% by Jul-Sep 2025....