July ECMWF runs are in and forecast an even more extreme El Niño event than the prior June runs. ENSO3.4 region temperatures reach 3.9C in December, and forecasts are around 0.3C warmer than they were in June.
— Zeke Hausfather (@zekehausfather.com) July 6, 2026 at 8:24 AM
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Monday, July 06, 2026
The Coming El Niño Keeps Getting Warmer
3.9°C! That would be utterly amazing. If I recall correctly, past El Niños have had a NINO3.4 anomaly of 2-2.5°C.
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