Friday, June 13, 2008

Oil statistics (Peak Oil?)

BP says:
2007 Oil Production = -0.2% from 2006 (81.5 Mb/d), the first year oil production has ever decreased from the year before

2007 Oil Consumption = +1.1% from 2006 (+0.9 Mb/d)
It is difficult to imagine that every oil well in the world isn't pumping all the oil they can, with oil at $135/b. If you made widgets and were, 4 years ago, getting $1 apiece for them, and if today you were able to sell the same widget for $3, wouldn't you be pumping them out as fast as you can? OK, you might leave a few widgets for future generations -- you might -- but let's face it, caring about future generations is not exactly a strong suit of human beings.

3 comments:

Mover Mike said...

You have captured the essence of Econ 101 perfectly. Now if only our candidates would get a quick and dirty education.

LOL, at McCain visiting ANWR!

Mark said...

Don't forget their other argument: that there's plenty of oil in the ground they could get at if only those environmentalists weren't so good at stopping big business from careful and sensitive extraction. Or those speculators, speculatin' the price is going to go up even more an' wastin' their money when we all know the bubble will burst... any... day... now.... Oh.

John Fleck said...

David -

If I am reading the numbers correctly, production also dropped year-over year in 1975, 1980-83, 1985, 1991, 1999, 2001 and 2002. It is rare (though not unprecedented) for production to drop in times of rising prices. But it is not unprecedented for production to drop year-over-year.