Saturday, May 21, 2011

More Abysmal Fred Singer Predictions

In October 1967 Fred Singer wrote an article for the Washington Post, writing as if it were 2007. Among his predictions were a few that were rather obvious:
  • that man-made satellites had been orbiting the earth for 50 years. 
  • None of the fundamental laws of physics had been overturned. 
  • increased understanding of the natural environment, and the relationships between the atmosphere, oceans, and the land. As the scale of human activity increased, so had the understanding of the subtle relationships between large-scale irrigation schemes and the climate. Weather satellites were able to indicate the trend of climate change.
  • increased reliance on the electronic computer and data processor.
And a few that were far off:
  • Planets had been explored but not colonized.
  • the increase in human intellect by direct electronic storage of information in the brain—the coupling of the brain to an external computer, thereby gaining direct access to an information library.
  • Population in the U.S. had doubled and the demand for water and energy had risen by a factor of four.
This last prediction was quite wrong on all three items:

Hardly an impressive track record.

Sources: 1967 US Population, 2007 US Population, US water usage, US energy consumption

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