Sunday, March 08, 2015

The Arctic's New Path to the Summer Melt

Right now Arctic sea ice (extent) is, well, behaving very differently than in years past. It's maximum (at least so far) was February 15th, several days ahead of the average. Since then it's been separating itself from the pack (bold purple line below):

NSIDC shows it's more than 2 standard deviation below the 1981-2010 average. According to my spreadsheet, it's 2.20 stdevs below the mean. Assuming the distribution of daily SIE is normal (Gaussian), that only happens 1.4% of the time. That's about half what you'd expect for the most anomalous year in a data record that's 37 years long (= 2.7%).

Neven has more here.


Unknown said...

Starting to look like the Arctic sea ice extent for March 2015 is going to break a new low record.

David Appell said...

Yeah, it is. For each day of the Month so far, 2015 has been the lowest in the records, for JAXA data.

For NSIDC data it's been every day but March 1st, when it was third lowest.