I agree with Timothy Snyder. This is where it's going, and there is presently nothing on the horizon that would stop it. https://t.co/osvhqph8IN pic.twitter.com/7NPzevHtZv
— Jay Rosen (@jayrosen_nyu) June 6, 2021
Personally it's difficult for me to see it coming to that. Trump looks more
In February, seven Republican senators voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial; just a few weeks ago, 35 House Republicans defied him and voted for the Jan. 6 inquiry. Even in a future where the G.O.P. takes back the House and the Senate in 2022, any attempt to overturn a clear Biden victory in 2024 would require most of the Republicans who cast these anti-Trump votes to swing completely to Team Let’s Have a Constitutional Crisis, with someone like Susan Collins or Lisa Murkowski casting the decisive vote. Which is imaginable only if some transformative political wave hits the Republican Party in the meantime — and barely so even then.What do you think?
Then keep in mind, too, that in the event of a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024, Biden, not Trump, will enjoy the presidency’s powers; Kamala Harris, not Mike Pence, will preside over the electoral count; and Trump will be four years older, unlikely to run a fourth time, and therefore somewhat less intimidating in defeat. In that landscape, it’s at least as easy to imagine him going more limply into the good night as it is to imagine top-to-bottom G.O.P. enthusiasm for the Great Coup of ’24.
Which, again, does not make the worriers unreasonable; it just makes their we’re all doomed attitude seem extremely premature.
9 comments:
I think a plausible scenario is that there will be one republican and one independent candidate for the next election. One pro-Trump and one anti-Trump. Depending on who wins the primary one of them will be the official candidate, but the other side won't accept the outcome and field an independent.
I really doubt there will be such blatant theft as the scenario you linked to. The republicans may want to, but so far has seemed too incompetent and indecisive to pull off a proper coup. Look at the vote counts where republicans in many states have denied that any fraud took place.
Who would have thought they would attempt it the first time? Who could doubt they would try it again?
Isn't the Constitution designed to avoid such absurdities?
If Republican infighting leads to two Republican candidates, surely that would split the Republican vote and guarantee a Democrat victory.
Surely the Republicans are not that stupid?
And what happens to Congress and the State legislatures. Do pro-Trump and anti-Trump candidates campaign at every level?
Isn't the Constitution designed to avoid such absurdities?
The constitution doesn't even grant citizens the right to vote. It only says that if a state permits a person to vote for the "most numerous branch" of its state legislature, it must permit that person to vote in elections for members of the United States House of Representatives.
It seems entirely up to the state to determine who is eligible to decide how it will award its electoral votes. There are amendments that prevent discrimination based on sex or race, but nothing that guarantees universal suffrage.
It does have this though: "No Person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."
But we've seen dereliction by more than one third of one House so it's not got much teeth.
Entropic, splitting the vote would ensure a democratic victory, but remember this is the people who threatened to hang Pence for lack of loyalty. Both sides may consider it preferable in the long run to lose one election if that helps them gain control of the party.
Thomas
It's a dangerous path to tread.
Too much internal division and the Republican oligarchy will go the way of the Whigs.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whigs_(British_political_party)
Entropic, sometimes parties die, it's happened in USA too. Once upon a time there was a "Democratic-Republican Party and a Federalist Party. The oligarchy can always start a new party or take a stronger hold of the more conservative half of the Democrats, maybe causing it to split too.
Chris Hayes asks Why Has No Trump Ally Faced Consequences For Trying To Overturn An Election?
“What penalty have they faced?" says Chris Hayes of the people who helped Trump attempt to overturn the election. “The answer is essentially zero, which is why they will not stop until someone goes to jail. Or, they find the weak point in the fence, and they get through, and they succeed.”
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