The Hunga Tonga volcano, the underwater volcano that erupted in January 2022 and has been blamed for the recent warming spike, crop failures on Mars and the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, had an overall cooling effect when it injected vast amounts of volcanic aerosols and water vapor into the atmosphere, according to a paper just published in JGR Atmospheres. Its effect has been over since the end of 2023.
Plain Language Summary The Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (Hunga) submarine volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022, produced aerosol and water vapor plumes in the stratosphere. These plumes have persisted mostly in the Southern Hemisphere throughout 2022 and into 2023. Enhanced tropospheric warming due to the added stratospheric water vapor is offset by the larger stratospheric aerosol attenuation of solar radiation. Hunga induced circulation changes that reduce stratospheric ozone and lower temperatures also play a role in the net forcing. The change in the radiative flux would result in a very slight 2022/3 cooling in Southern Hemisphere. The Hunga climate forcing has decreased to near zero by the end of 2023.Here's a news article.
4 comments:
Interesting. Where climate scientists expecting a net warming effect? Or was it just given by the usual suspects as a post hock explanation for the observed warming? I don't think I'd heard of this one way or the other.
I believe it was the usual suspects, looking for natural reasons to explain the last 12 months of serious warming. Scientists (like Gavin Schmidt) didn't seem sure, based on something he wrote on Realclimate. IIRC
Here’s what Jim wrote at the end of the 2023 ozone hole season:
“Overall, the ozone hole was slightly larger (12th out of 45), deeper (13th out of 45), and colder than the average over the forty five years of the satellite era, despite significant decreases in mid- and high-latitude ozone depleting substances.
This is probably due to the lingering effects of the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption, which sent water vapor into the mesosphere.
As a result, it is, IMO, reasonable to conclude that, first, international regulation of fugitive emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) is succeeding, and second, the world is on track to reduce the ODS in the atmosphere to pre-1980 levels by 2049 at mid-latitudes and 2076 at high latitudes.
This is, IMO, the clearest example of the benefits of the Montreal Protocol.
The health benefits have in the US alone nearly cut in half skin cancer mortality, incidence of melanoma, and incidence of cataracts. “
Onymous: that's good to know, thanks. I wonder what the dollar savings are from fewer US cancers et al.
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