Wednesday, September 11, 2024

US Presidential Prediction Market Post-Debate

Here's what the PredictIt US Presidential Race market shows after last night's debate:


PredictIt is a market where buy and sell "shares" in various categories. One which is closely followed this time of the election cycle is for US president. So here Kamala Harris's price rose sharply shortly after the debate started:


at 9 pm US Eastern Time. The blue column bars are shares traded, labeled on the left vertical axis, and the price per share, labeled on the right. 

Kamala Harris was superb in the debate and she badly outplayed him. Trump was an angry, lying, bombastic, bumbling fool. I'd like to think this sinks his chances, but in today's America apparently nine years of observing such a fool on the political stage may not be enough yet. 

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