I haven't written anything about the fires in Los Angeles, particularly with respect to climate change, because, well, the causes and problems of the fires are highly complex and not due to any one thing. It's clear that the fires were not caused/exacerbated by (a) the mayor being abroad, (b) the state's desire to protect smelt, a fish, (c) water and reservoir shortages. The nearby reservoirs have ample water. What I've read says that there was a water shortage in places like Pacific Palisades because there was massive demand that ran the water system there dry. Not surprising when fighting a major wildfire in major suburbs. (d) it's not due to cuts in any fire department budgets, which were on the order of $20 million out of about $900 million. 2%. Fire departments don't live and die on such budget changes. They don't suddenly collapse because women have some very high positions in the department, or because of DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) programs. The right-wing in this country, who can no longer be called "conservatives," now uses trolling as a significant political weapon, without regard for the truth, and it's really ruining the country. Trump is, needless to say, useless, calling the California governor juvenile names and expressing little-to-no interest in what's happening to people and their homes. And so on. A large group in this country is far more interested in assigning blame than in understanding and empathizing with those who lost their homes and possessions and everything. It's almost unbelievable the things "they" say.
The latest number of deaths I've seen is 24. The fires are still raging. Sometimes it looks like all of Los Angeles is going to burn down completely. As of this morning the Palisades fire was only 17% contained. Police are arresting drone pilots. It's now possible (!!!) to place bets on Polymarket on parameters of the fires--how many acres will the Palisades fire burn in total, when will the Palisades fire be contained, etc. There is something really sick about that. Only in America (I suppose. I hope.).
As for how climate change is affecting the fires, I trust this blog post by Andrew Dessler on The Climate Brink. The whole thing is worth reading. Here's part:
Climate change does not “cause” extreme events, but it can amplify them. In fact, it is certain that climate change affects every weather event by altering the baseline conditions in which they occur.The entire post is well worth reading.
Thus, the real scientific question is not whether climate change influenced the fire — of course it did. Rather, the real question is quantifying the impact: how much did climate change increase this specific event’s intensity or likelihood? We don’t know the answer yet, but I’m sure scientists are already working on it.
2 comments:
looking at google maps the areas burned are incredibly tightly packed, little green space around houses compared to uk. Also do these houses use bituminous shingles - not good in fires. Obviously many houses leave nothing but brick chimneys. so presumably mainly wood construction. And not helped by 100mph winds! Also perhaps we should learn from the great fires of london
I don't know about their shingles, but yes, those houses are packed tightly. "Little boxes made of ticky-tacky" (if you're familiar with the TV show "Weeds"). Lots of people want to live in LA -- great climate, great opportunities, near the ocean and mountains, very desirable real estate. The place might never be the same again.
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