Harlan Ellison, On Thinking

“If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; but if you really make them think, they'll hate you.”

-- Harlan Ellison

The Latest Sign the World Won't Cut CO2

So it turns out the world can come together to face a common problem -- except it's in opposition to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions instead of for it.

All the big non-European countries -- the United States, China, Japan, Russia and India -- are signatories to the "Moscow Joint Declaration," which expresses disapproval of EU's plan to charge airlines for the carbon their planes emit flying to Europe.

The reduction is quite small -- 0.6% of world emissions -- and the cost works out to $21 per metric ton, or about $2 on a one-way ticket. But even this doesn't seem acceptable, and if this isn't, it's difficult to imagine what will.

Here are some of the particulars: the aviation industry emits 3.5% of worldwide CO2, or currently about 1,000 Mt per year. The EU's wants to reduce this by 183 Mt per year in 2020, or 46% for the planes whose landing and take-offs happen in Europe.

183 Mt is really quite small -- it's the emissions of 10.8 million Americans (in 2009). Or 36 million Chinese.

By comparison, in 2009 the World emitted 29,000 Mt from fuel consumption.

The EU is initially waiving 85% of the fees, but by 2020 it's estimated to cost airlines €2.8 billion ($3.8 billion). But I guess that can be alot to the airline industry, if they can't pass it on for reasons of competition.

But it shows how unwilling anyone is -- except the Europeans and (about half of) the Australians -- to charge for carbon emissions.

Tar Sands Compared to Mountaintop Removal

Here's an interesting nugget from the Calgary Herald: "Mountain top coal mining in the U.S. has already disturbed 10 times more surface area than current [Alberta] oilsands development and will mine more area than oilsands developers can ever exploit in the lifetime of the resource.

That's not something you often hear from environmentalists.

McKibben's Dishonest Huff Post Piece

Bill McKibben has written an astonishingly dishonest article for the Huffington Post.

Yes, I get it: McKibben thinks he is making hay with the Keystone XL issue -- and he certainly has made some -- and doesn't want to lose that. But that's no reason to fudge the facts.

He wrote about last weekend's Swart and Weaver article in Nature Climate Change -- the one that finds the carbon content of the "proven" Alberta tar sands will only raise average global temperatures by 0.03°C -- and he completely avoids mentioning their result. Completely.

In fact, much like Joseph Romm, he twists the article into implying it supports his established position -- when it does not. There isn't a single mention of the +0.03°C result in his article. Instead he bypasses it completely and moves beyond to report on the consequences of burning all of it -- which no one is currently talking about -- and of burning all available coal -- which we all accept would be disastrous.

McKibben:

A new study from a pair of British Columbia scientists shows that there's a lot of carbon in the tarsands -- but a lot more yet in the planet's coal deposits.

If you burned all the tarsands we know about now, you'd raise the planet's temperature more than half a degree -- i.e., half again as much as the global warming we've already seen, which has been enough to make the seas 30% more acid and cut Arctic sea ice 40%. But if you burned all the coal we know about it, the temperature would go up 15 degrees.

At a certain point, I suppose, it doesn't matter -- most scientists think anything more than two degrees Celsius puts us into a zone of extreme danger, and we're already halfway there. Fifteen degrees would be just gilding the lily. Still, it makes it clear that even if, as NASA's James Hansen has said, burning the planet's unconventional fuels like tarsands would mean it was "game over the for the climate," stopping that burning won't be enough. We also have to address the most obvious, conventional forms of energy -- coal, especially. It was the first kind of fossil fuel we learned to burn, 300 years ago. And we've got to kick the habit.

Do you see any mention of the paper's main result? No, I don't either.

Sure, it's easy for McKibben or me or you to say we shouldn't burn all the tar sands or all the coal. But we have very, very good lives and get to fly all over the world to do what we want.

Do you think about carbon when you fly? Anywhere? No, neither do I.

I'd FOIA McKibben's travel schedule if I could. But 350.org is a private organization, so I can't. I know he sometimes tries to do video appearances instead of in-person lectures. I also know he recently flew to Corvallis, Oregon to give a lecture in person. And that he's been all over. McKibben has surely emitted far more carbon than he's "entitled" to, on the per-capita basis that would keep atmospheric CO2 levels from reaching "dangerous" levels. Of course, so have I (but not as much as McKibben). And so have you (but not as much, I suspect, as McKibben.))

Once activists get into a cause, you just can't trust them to accurately portray the facts, especially if the facts change against them. I wonder how much funding 350.org gets, anyway. Does anyone know? Have they ever revealed it?

Heartland Documents Up at Climate Document Storehouse

As the Heartland Institute documents are now clearly of journalistic and even historical interest, I've started a "Climate Document Storehouse" and uploaded them here.

Interview with AGU President Michael McPhaden

I spoke with American Geophysical Union President Michael McPhaden tonight, who was in Australia. He answered my questions about the Peter Gleick/Heartland Institute incident and Gleick's resignation as Chair of the AGU Task Force on Scientific Integrity. We also discussed its potential impact on AGU, scientists who are also activists and/or concerned citizens, and politicalization in the climate debate, including that of Chris Mooney who was on the Board of Directors of the AGU.

As background, see today's AGU statement on the Gleick affair. The full podcast is about 21 minutes long.

Bast Again Says Gleick "Forged" the Memo

In a video interview today Joseph Bast (President of the Heartland Institute) said explicitedly that Peter Gleick "forged" the two page said-to-be fake memo. I've again asked him and Jim Lakely how they know it was Gleick who did this, but still haven't received a response.)





Via The Hockey Schtick

AGU Statement; Gleick Resigned Last Thursday

The American Geophysical Union just issued the following statement:

AGU Encourages Integrity in all Aspects of Climate Change Discourse

Scholarly Society Rejects Deception Regarding Heartland Institute Documents

February 21, 2012
AGU Release No. 12-11
For Immediate Release

In response to a blog post late yesterday, 20 February 2012, by Dr. Peter Gleick regarding documents purportedly from the Heartland Institute which he disseminated, AGU President Michael McPhaden issued the following statement:

“AGU is disappointed that Dr. Gleick acted in a way that is inconsistent with our organization’s values. AGU expects its members to adhere to the highest standards of scientific integrity in their research and in their interactions with colleagues and the public. Among the core values articulated in AGU’s Strategic Plan are ‘excellence and integrity in everything we do.’ The vast majority of scientists share and live by these values.

“AGU will continue to uphold these values and encourage scientists to embrace them in order to remain deserving of the public trust.  While this incident is regrettable, it should not obscure the fact that climate change is occurring or interfere with substantive scientific discourse regarding climate change.”

On Thursday, 16 February, prior to his blog post, Dr. Gleick resigned as chair of AGU’s Task Force on Scientific Ethics, which first convened in November 2011. In his resignation, he cited “personal, private reasons” and expressed concern that he would not be able to fulfill his responsibilities as chair. His resignation was accepted.

Following Dr. Gleick’s resignation, a search began immediately for a replacement. Effective today, 21 February, the new chair of AGU’s Task Force on Scientific Integrity is Linda Gundersen, Director, Office of Science Quality and Integrity, USGS (U.S. Geological Survey).

The American Geophysical Union is a not-for-profit society of Earth and space scientists with more than 61,000 members in 146 countries. Established in 1919 and headquartered in Washington, D.C., AGU advances the Earth and space sciences through its scholarly publications, meetings, and outreach programs. For more information, visit www.agu.org.

The Two Sides of Desmogblog's Mouth

These words are from Richard Littlemore at Desmogblog, but I've added the colors. Can someone please explain to me how the sentiment in blue is not in direct opposition to the sentiments in red??

"Whistleblowers - and that's the role Gleick has played in this instance - deserve respect for having the courage to make important truths known to the public at large. Without condoning or promoting an act of dishonesty, it's fair to say that Gleick took a significant personal risk - and by standing and taking responsibility for his actions, he has shown himself willing to pay the price. For his courage, his honor, and for performing a selfless act of public service, he deserves our gratitude and applause."

Is a PR agency saying anything if its sentences add up to exactly zero?

Gleick Removed from AGU Task Force

Peter Gleick's name has been removed from the AGU's site on their Task Force on Scientific Ethics, but no mention from them otherwise. Earlier I asked them for a statement from, or interview with, AGU President Mike McPhaden, and they say they will get back to me.

Romm's Rage Shtick Now Playing in Theatre 3

The worst thing about all this is that there are a certain group of people who, if this were a high school debate and you had them reverse all their positions, their tactics and tone would be completely predictable and the tenor of the debate would be completely unchanged.

Joe Romm is in that group.

Romm -- whose organization, let's remember, refuses to reveal its own funders -- just can't help himself. In a post whose very title says that civilization is imploding (actually it's fairly quiet here in Oregon, and it's even stopped raining for a few hours), Romm spends over 1500 words on excuses explaining that the climate debate is a street fight and THEY'RE WORSE! and "many immoral and unethical acts that regularly occur on a far less grand scale are condoned or winked at or simply ignored," before finally finding it within himself to write this one sentence:

But Gleick is right that he committed a serious lapse of professional judgment and ethics. He is right to regret his actions and make a personal apology.

before reverting back into his shtick of rage, spending another 1,000 words attacking Andrew Revkin because Revkin wrote this and smeared him and didn't retract that and owes an apology and on and on and on.

And when exactly will Revkin apologize for his various lapses, including his absurd and I think hypocritical response to Gleick’s post?

To review:

They're worse! ~1500 words

Gleick was wrong: 27 words

Journalist scum! ~1000 words 

Whatever keeps the talk shows calling, I guess, right?

--
Oh yeah: I was wrong when I guessed that Romm would ignore the Swart and Weaver article claiming that the Alberta tar sands will only add +0.03°C to future warming. Romm did mention it -- and calls it confusing, and then turns the tables and claims the paper "makes a strong case against the tar sands if we want to avoid catastrophic warming." That, people, is how this game is be played.

Gleick Resigns from NCSE Board

Peter Gleick resigns from board of the National Center for Science Education, and his resignation is accepted:

http://ncse.com/news/2012/02/source-heartland-leak-steps-forward-007220

Eugenie Scott, NCSE Executive Director: "Gleick obtained and disseminated these documents without the knowledge of anyone here, and we do not condone his doing so.... They show that NCSE was right to broaden its scope to include the teaching of climate science. There really are coordinated attempts to undermine the teaching of climate science, and NCSE is needed to help to thwart them."

UCS: The Devil Made Him Do It

This is a disappointing response from the Kevin Knoblach, the President of the Union of Concerned Scientists:

"It’s unfortunate that the bitter, personal attacks on his colleagues and their work contributed to what he called a lapse of his own personal judgment and ethics."

This just isn't a time to for yeah-buts and they-do-it-too's. There just isn't any place for Gleick's illicit actions -- lying, at the least -- in science. And he is still a scientist, even if he is also an activist. This is the same thing that disturbed me about Michael Mann's apparent search for an journalist to "investigate and expose" Steve McIntyre. Science has its ethics, just as golfers are expected to call penalties on themselves even when no one else sees their foul. Gleick did, but only eventually and only when the suspicions grew. It wasn't right in the first place. It certainly undercuts Knoblach's sentence in the same message, that Gleick is "a strong advocate for the important role science plays in society."

Maybe I have a rose-colored view of what science is supposed to be. But I do.

Ouch: Gleick Chairs AGU Task Force on Scientific Ethics

Wow, this is bad -- Peter Gleick chairs an AGU Task Force on Scientific Ethics:

http://www.agu.org/about/governance/committees_boards/scientific_ethics.shtml

"The Scientific Ethics Task Force is responsible for reviewing and guiding the Union’s standards, principles, and code of conduct on ethics and integrity in scientific activities."

What a tragedy. I thought Steve McIntyre's thoughts tonight were well said: "No one should feel any satisfaction in these events, which have been highly damaging to everyone touched by them, including both Heartland and Gleick."

Unfortunately I see a lot of piling on, though unfortunately some of it is not unexpected. Ever classy, Morano puts Gleick's picture and email address on his page -- both of them three times.

Heartland Accuses Gleick of Faking the Memo, Too

At a time when an evening's silence would have shown a little class and dignity, the Heartland Institute instead chooses to stay in the muck and mire:

FEBRUARY 20, 2012: Earlier this evening, Peter Gleick, a prominent figure in the global warming movement, confessed to stealing electronic documents from The Heartland Institute in an attempt to discredit and embarrass a group that disagrees with his views.

Gleick’s crime was a serious one. The documents he admits stealing contained personal information about Heartland staff members, donors, and allies, the release of which has violated their privacy and endangered their personal safety.

An additional document Gleick represented as coming from The Heartland Institute, a forged memo purporting to set out our strategies on global warming, has been extensively cited by newspapers and in news releases and articles posted on Web sites and blogs around the world. It has caused major and permanent damage to the reputations of The Heartland Institute and many of the scientists, policy experts, and organizations we work with.

A mere apology is not enough to undo the damage.

In his statement, Gleick claims he committed this crime because he believed The Heartland Institute was preventing a “rational debate” from taking place over global warming. This is unbelievable. Heartland has repeatedly asked for real debate on this important topic. Gleick himself was specifically invited to attend a Heartland event to debate global warming just days before he stole the documents. He turned down the invitation.

Gleick also claims he did not write the forged memo, but only stole the documents to confirm the content of the memo he received from an anonymous source. This too is unbelievable. Many independent commentators already have concluded the memo was most likely written by Gleick.

We hope Gleick will make a more complete confession in the next few days.

What a pitiful display by both sides.

To Clarify: Gleick Wasn't the Faker, But the Scanner

Just to clarify, I checked with the Pacific Institute, and they say Peter Gleick did not create the document the Heartland Institute says is fake -- that it was the document mailed to him that he mentioned in the 2nd paragraph of his HuffPost piece.

At the beginning of 2012, I received an anonymous document in the mail describing what appeared to be details of the Heartland Institute's climate program strategy. It contained information about their funders and the Institute's apparent efforts to muddy public understanding about climate science and policy. I do not know the source of that original document but assumed it was sent to me because of my past exchanges with Heartland and because I was named in it.

Gleick then scanned it on 2/13 (according to its metadata). So the mystery of the faker remains....

Revkin: Gleick's "reputation in tatters...."

Andrew Revkin writes "...Gleick has admitted to an act that leaves his reputation in ruins and threatens to undercut the cause he spent so much time pursuing."

Revkin's breaking tweet is here.

Peter H. Gleick: The Origin of the Heartland Documents

Peter Gleick admits to illicitedly obtaining the Heartland documents.... and sets environmental activism back 10 years (at least).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-h-gleick/-the-origin-of-the-heartl_b_1289669.html

Hitler Does Heartland

At least someone still has a sense of humor....

CTV News Story on Today's Tar Sands Paper

Here's a new story from Canadian TV about the Swart & Weaver paper:

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/SciTech/20120219/coal-climate-change-study-120219/

It includes these quotes from Andrew Weaver:

"I was surprised by the results of our analysis.... I thought it was larger than it was."

"The conventional and unconventional oil is not the problem with global warming. The problem is coal and unconventional natural gas."

"This idea that we're going to somehow run out of coal and natural gas and fossil fuels is really misplaced. We'll run out of human ability to live on the planet long before we run out of them.

"I have always said that the tar sands are a symptom of a very big problem. The problem is dependence on fossil fuels."