Thursday, March 21, 2013

New GISS Data Just In

We are in trouble -- GISS just posted their new anomaly numbers for February -- +0.49°C.
That makes the past 12 months 0.06°C warmer than the previous 12 months.

People, that's a warming rate of 11°F per century.

We are doomed (according to people like this)!

Seriously: the 15-yr trend -- which, remember, is for suckers -- is +0.07 ± 0.04°C/decade (2σ), which is totally significantly significant and not all that small.

Just 5 months ago it was +0.05°C/decade.

I told you it would be increasing as the 1997-98 El Nino slides out the back end of the 15-year window.

Live by crappy insignificant trends, die by crappy insignificant trends.

A climatologically relevant trend -- say, 30-years, in case anyone still cares about actual climate science anymore and not just point-scoring -- is still 0.17 ± 0.02°C/decade(*).

*Uncertainties are 2-sigma basic OLS statistical uncertainties. Autocorrelation increases them; see here for more details, but certainly not all of them. Or even half of them. Use the SkS trend calculator if you need to.

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