Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Estimated GISS April Global Temperature Anomaly: +0.66°C

My estimate for GISS's global temperature anomaly for April is +0.66°C.

This is based on the daily reanalysis numbers published by the University of Maine Climate Reanalyzer, as described here. This makes April significantly cooler than March's +0.84°C, but it's still the 4th-warmest April since record-keeping began in 1880.

Year-to-date, i.e. for [only] he first four months of this year, this puts GISS at +0.13°C warmer than 2014. Assuming my estimate for April is correct, GISS only needs an average anomaly of +0.63°C for the rest of the year to establish a new record:

Reminder: GISS's baseline is 1951-1980.

I also estimate HadSST's April anomaly will be +0.40°C, which is the 4th-warmest April since 1850.

The Reanalyzer shows the El Nino really gaining steam (so to speak), which suggests a likelihood of warmer months ahead:


Unknown said...

Does anyone expect the El Nino temperature change to show up in the RSS and UAH figures - they have appeared to be sensitive to El Ninos and La Ninas before.

David Appell said...

The 1998 and 2010 El Ninos showed up strongly in both RSS's and UAH's data.

David Appell said...

I'd be surprised if this year's El Nino didn't show up, though it might be several months.....