Tuesday, April 14, 2015

What Hiatus?



Unknown said...

This strikes me as odd. The rolling 18 year mean doesn't seem to represent the underlying data terribly well.

Is there a lag? Is the window centred on the correct year?

If not, that would explain why there appears to be an end-discard in the early years, but the smoothing goes all the way to the end of the data set.

And why you don't see the hiatus.

DobGoblin said...
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DobGoblin said...

I've done this on yearly (J-D) from that data set, with 18 year Loess fit, which does go through the data points correctly. Any thing I've done has been done better here:https://tamino.wordpress.com/
There is no hiatus.

David Appell said...

Doug: No, it's just the 18-yr trailing average.