Thursday, August 06, 2015

The Department of Oops. Case Number 1.

"Cooling in the near future?"
Anthony Watts / November 19, 2012
Guest post by Dr. Norman Page
"The earth is entering a cooling phase which is likely to last about 30 years and possibly longer."

Quark Soup thinks a published correction is in order.


Arno Arrak said...

David why are you cheating by starting your graph at year 2012? Start it at 2002 when the step warming stops and you will get a horizontal line through July 2015.No warming, no cooling, just a hiatus all the way. And did I mention no greenhouse warming? If not, make a note of it.

Dano said...

Arno, if you....erm..."think" about why 2012 was chosen, and then look at the date of the ill-fated statement, your question will be answered.




Steve said...

Arno, have your even made an attempt to check that claim?

Here is a link to Giss from 2002 to the present"

Here is a link to NOAA showing the trend from 2002:

Clearly the claim that there has been no warming since 2002 is desperate nonsense.

Why did you choose 2002 rather than the canonical 1998? Answer: because 1998 shows a strong positive trend. You are cherry picking short term trends to get the answer you want - and it still does not work! I expect that you will be claiming in 2020 that warming stopped in 2015.

David Appell said...

Arno: I started with 2012 because the post and prediction was written in 2012.

Dr Norman Page said...

Gentlemen For the cooling trend See
For the simple minded see
For more in depth see
Y'all might find this exchange with Freeman Dyson interesting

David Appell said...


Your claim is garbage.

A 12-year trend says absolutely nothing about climate change. Nothing. It is about natural variability, which can easily swamp AGW over 10 or 20 years.


Dr Norman Page said...

David I'm not sure which claim you are referring to. To see the time scale I think appropriate for deciding trends see my latest post
Here is the appropriate section.

"Ava asks - the blue line is almost flat. - When will we know for sure that we are on the down slope of the thousand year cycle and heading towards another Little Ice Age?

Grandpa says- I'm glad to see that you have developed an early interest in Epistemology.
Remember ,I mentioned the 60 year cycle, well, the data shows that the temperature peak in 2003 was close to a peak in both that cycle and the 1000 year cycle. If we are now on the downslope of the 1000 year cycle then the next peak in the 60 year cycle at about 2063 should be lower than the 2003 peak and the next 60 year peak after that at about 2123 should be lower again, so, by that time ,if the peak is lower, we will be pretty sure that we are on our way to the next little ice age.

That is a long time to wait, but we will get some useful clues a long time before that. Look again at the red curve in Fig 3 - you can see that from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2009 solar activity dropped to the lowest it has been for a long time. Remember the 12 year delay between the 1991 solar activity peak and the 2003 temperature peak, if there is a similar delay in the response to lower solar activity , earth should see a cold spell from 2019 to 2021 when you will be in Middle School.

It should also be noticeably cooler at the coolest part of the 60 year cycle - halfway through the present 60 year cycle at about 2033.

We can watch for these things to happen but meanwhile keep in mind that the overall cyclic trends can be disturbed for a time in some years by the El Nino weather patterns in the Pacific and the associated high temperatures that we see in for example 1998 and 2010 (fig 2) and that we might see before the end of this year- 2015.

David Appell said...


There was no temperature peak in 2003:

Eight of 11 years since then 2003 have been warmer, according to GISTEMP.

In my opinion you are looking at graphs and picking out patterns that you you want to see, and bending the actual data to fit them

In any case, greenhouse warming will easily swamp any solar cooling between now and 2060 or even 2030.

David Appell said...

Norman, why did you leave this conversation?

At least have the guts to admit when you are wrong....