Thursday, January 14, 2016
Ted Cruz: Your "18 Years" of No Satellite Warming is in Mortal Danger
It should end in early February, when UAH releases their anomaly number for the lower troposphere. (Here I'll focus on UAH's LT data.)
Of course, this claim has always relied on anti-scientific cherry-picking: choosing your starting point to get the result you want, whether it's scientifically meaningful or not. As I wrote here, the claim of "18+ years of no warming" relies completely on the warming spike of the 1997-98 El Nino. If that event (= natural variability) had never happened, this "pause" wouldn't now being occurring.
But now, even that strong influence is being overtaken by higher temperatures.
Here are the numbers:
Red shows the "reverse warming" of the lower troposphere according to UAH -- the warming from any point on the x-axis to present.
As you can see, the "pause" in LT warming relies on a very careful cherry pick -- starting your calculation near the dip early in 1998.
Early this February, UAH will release their anomaly number for January 2015. As long as it is +0.51 C or larger, the warming (blue line) will no longer start in negative territory for any date in the past.
The "pause" will disappear.
Will January's LT anomaly reach 0.51 C? It'd better, or UAH's model is going to look awfully suspicious. Because during the 1997-98 El Nino, UAH LT anomalies increased drastically in the first few months of 1998:
So there's good reason to think UAH LT anomalies -- which so far have been larger than in 1997-98 (= probably AGW) by about 0.2 C, should easily be above 0.51 C this month.
Will Chris Monckton, Werner Brozek and the usual suspects find a way to keep the pause going? Probably, using error bars or statistical tricks. It will be fun to watch.
But it will be grasping at straws.
Note: I'm putting the "Numerology" logo atop this post because this kind of analysis has always been numerology, not real science. Live by numerology, die by numerology.
Posted by David Appell at 1/14/2016 04:14:00 PM