The Obama and Trump economies are not comparable. Historically, economic recoveries lasted around 5 to 10 years. The longest recovery in recent times lasted 120 months. Obama became President at the beginning of a recovery. The recovery continued throughout his administration, but it was slowing down at the end of his Presidency. Thanks to Trump's policies, the recovery picked up steam. The GDP growth rate had sunk to 1.6% in 2016. It then rose to 2.2% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. The Obama/Trump recovery is now the longest in history. IMHO the recovery would have ended absent Trump's policies.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_economic_expansions_in_the_United_States See https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543
Dic wrote: "The recovery continued throughout his administration, but it was slowing down at the end of his Presidency. Thanks to Trump's policies, the recovery picked up steam."
In the first 8 quarters of the economy during Trump's term, overall growth was 5.9%.
In the last 8 quarters of the economy during Obama's second term, overall growth was 3.5%.
But as I wrote above, job gains under that period for Obama was larger than under the equivalent period for Trump.
In general, policies that encourage businesses to establish or grow in the US contribute to economic growth. Trump's pro-growth policies include
-- Cutting the corporate income tax rate. Even Obama had recommended a cut in corporate income tax rate
-- Cutting regulations that burden business. Coping with unnecessary regs is big burden.
-- Appointing conservative judges. Makes business less likely to pay large lawsuit awards.
-- Encouraging more oil and gas and coal development. More energy means cheaper energy.
-- Revision of NAFTA. As far as I know, this was only a small victory, but it's a step in the right direction.
-- Attempting to get a fairer trade relationship with China. So far, this effort has not succeeded, but the effort alone is encouraging.
-- General pro-business attitude. Confidence in the government encourages businesses to grow in the US, because they have confidence that future business climate will be good. This is why the stock market boomed immediately after the election, even though Trump hadn't done anything yet.
I am more dubious about the next two
--Cutting the personal income tax. Some people think this is a big impact on economic expansion. I think it's a lot less significant than the cut in corporate income tax
-- Big deficit spending. I think this temporarily encourages economic expansion, but the long-run impact of the huge debt is a big, big problem
Cheers
P.S. I don't think one can make a comparable list for Obama. On the contrary, his administration took some steps to discourage energy development
5 comments:
The Obama and Trump economies are not comparable. Historically, economic recoveries lasted around 5 to 10 years. The longest recovery in recent times lasted 120 months. Obama became President at the beginning of a recovery. The recovery continued throughout his administration, but it was slowing down at the end of his Presidency. Thanks to Trump's policies, the recovery picked up steam. The GDP growth rate had sunk to 1.6% in 2016. It then rose to 2.2% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. The Obama/Trump recovery is now the longest in history. IMHO the recovery would have ended absent Trump's policies.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_economic_expansions_in_the_United_States
See https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543
Cheers
David, Obama because president at the DEPTHS OF A DEPRESSION.
He had to bring the country out of that, and he did.
Dic wrote:
"The recovery continued throughout his administration, but it was slowing down at the end of his Presidency. Thanks to Trump's policies, the recovery picked up steam."
In the first 8 quarters of the economy during Trump's term, overall growth was 5.9%.
In the last 8 quarters of the economy during Obama's second term, overall growth was 3.5%.
But as I wrote above, job gains under that period for Obama was larger than under the equivalent period for Trump.
"Thanks to Trump's policies, the recovery picked up steam."
Which policies, specifically?
In general, policies that encourage businesses to establish or grow in the US contribute to economic growth. Trump's pro-growth policies include
-- Cutting the corporate income tax rate. Even Obama had recommended a cut in corporate income tax rate
-- Cutting regulations that burden business. Coping with unnecessary regs is big burden.
-- Appointing conservative judges. Makes business less likely to pay large lawsuit awards.
-- Encouraging more oil and gas and coal development. More energy means cheaper energy.
-- Revision of NAFTA. As far as I know, this was only a small victory, but it's a step in the right direction.
-- Attempting to get a fairer trade relationship with China. So far, this effort has not succeeded, but the effort alone is encouraging.
-- General pro-business attitude. Confidence in the government encourages businesses to grow in the US, because they have confidence that future business climate will be good. This is why the stock market boomed immediately after the election, even though Trump hadn't done anything yet.
I am more dubious about the next two
--Cutting the personal income tax. Some people think this is a big impact on economic expansion. I think it's a lot less significant than the cut in corporate income tax
-- Big deficit spending. I think this temporarily encourages economic expansion, but the long-run impact of the huge debt is a big, big problem
Cheers
P.S. I don't think one can make a comparable list for Obama. On the contrary, his administration took some steps to discourage energy development
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