Saturday, February 04, 2012

Has The Current La Nina Peaked?

The current La Nina isn't looking very impressive, and might already be withering. Here are the 30-day and 90-day averages of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) -- the SOI is based on the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, and is a proxy for ENSOs (though perhaps not as good a proxy as the MEI -- Multivariate ENSO Index).

If so it would have peaked at about the same point as previous La Ninas, except for the really strong one of 2010-2011:

And already sea-level rise seems to be picking back up again:

So the days of having to explain to people that ENSOs cause fluctuations in sea-level and surface warming may be coming to an end -- though there is still the PDO and NAO to consider. It's always something, isn't it?


bob said...

possibility of a triple dip La Nina is not negligible. Ie La Nina fades by summer and then another La Nina kicks off.

Would just be delaying the inevitable El Nino though.

riverat said...

As I understand it a major factor in the recent sea level drop was all of the heavy precipitation around the world in the last 2 years and the time it takes for that water to return to the sea.

David Appell said...

RR, yes, you're right: