Saturday, April 25, 2020

This Doesn't Look Good (Maybe)


But OurWorldinData gives different view of recent case numbers:

In fact, the total number of cases is almost 61,000 higher in the top graph than in the second one. 

But you have to wonder if the protests and steps to reopen might not already be showing up in the data for new cases....


David in Cal said...

The numbers worry me. The number of new cases seems to have stopped rising, but it's hard to say it's declining. The number of tests is way up. No doubt, that accounts for some of the trend in new cases. But, how big is the impact of increased testing?

One clue is hospital admissions. These are independent of case reporting lag or the impact of increased testing. Hospital admissions have been going down, according to Dr. Birx. I don't recall the figures, so I don't know how fast they're going down.

I hate to see people in groups without masks. A mask helps prevent rthe wearer from infecting others. And, we don't know whether we're asymptomatically infected. I can sympathize with those who want to re-open. But, anyone who thinks the virus is a scam is foolish and dangerous.

Nevertheless, IMHO it's unlikely that the demonstrations have had a significant effect on the new case load, because
1. The number of people involved in these demonstrations is small, compared to the entire population.
2. There much less transmission in sunlight, according to a study presented a couple of days ago.
3. Being outdoors must help, because infected droplets are not trapped inside a structure.
4. It would take at least 6 or 7 days for a new case to show symptoms. Some of the demonstrations are more recent than that
5. The demonstrations have taken place where existing frequency isn't too high. No demonstrations in NYC, Boston, etc.


Ned said...

I am not an epidemiologist, but I agree with David in Cal that it seems unlikely that the "demonstrations" have had much effect.

I agree with David Appell that the numbers are not looking great. I'm not thrilled about the daily deaths numbers.

The total number of deaths had been growing exponentially, but in late March/early April (~2 wks after widespread adoption of social distancing) it slowed to more of a linear increase. Over the past 19 days, there has been a very consistent average of 2150 deaths per day, or 15,000 per week.

That's five new 9/11 attacks per week, for three weeks.

If this continues for another three weeks -- and based on the daily-cases data that seems easy to imagine -- we will be closing in on 100,000 deaths nationwide in late May.

DocRichard said...

David, is there a 5-7 day wave in the stats? It appears here, and I have notices it, surprisingly, in global case figures. It could be explained if there's is a surge in infective cases that produces a surge in new cases. Just as is seen inpopulation figures, as baby boomers produce a wave of babies. Just a thought.

Entropic man said...

There is a 7 day cycle in The UK. Nothing to do with the virus. Reporting decreases over the weekend,and then the backlog clears on Monday. It means that we underread over the weekend and overread on Monday and Tuesday.

Ned said...

President Trump wants to use the Commencement (graduation) ceremony at West Point, the US Military Academy, as a prop for his floundering re-election campaign.

Unfortunately, all the cadets were sent home because of the CV19 pandemic.

So Trump is demanding that the graduating cadets be brought *back* to West Point for his campaign appearance. To minimize the risk to the cadets and West Point staff, the returning cadets will be kept off-campus and tested for CV19, then quarantined individually on campus for 14 days prior to graduation.

It's a stupid stunt that will waste money, waste CV19 tests and PPE, and endanger the cadets and their families and the West Point staff who will have to support them - cleaning their housing, cooking their meals, etc.

All to gratify the obscene ego of this horrible old man, and help him film a campaign commercial for his re-election effort.

Entropic man said...

Watch Georgia, Oklahoma, Alaska and South Carolina.

They eased their lockdowns over the weekend.

It will be interesting to see if their caseload jumps next weekend.

Thomas said...

Ned, I think it's a useful lesson for all cadets who after graduating are still naive enough to believe they are going to be fighting to protect their country, to spread freedom or the other platitudes taught. They are a force to be used for vanity projects of the supreme commander. Are they lucky the get a beach vacation on Grenada, if they are less lucky they get stuck in the mountains of Afghanistan, all at the whim of a president who usually don't care much what happen to them except for what it does to his own image and chances to be reelected. Trump is just a bit more obvious.