Yeah. We've been at 5% growth rate for about 2 weeks now. It had been steadily dropping prior to that, but we can't seem to shed this last bit...
You'll probably stay at 5% for a while. That is the equilibrium infection rate for the current lockdown. You'll only get to zero by a complete quarantine, Wuhan style, which your people would not cooperate with.
If the dark red line would smooth a bit more, Canada would simply be going up all the time. The dip could be the 4-day Eastern holidays with less testing. You see a similar dip at this time for Germany; I guess Canada has a similar larger number of holidays compared to the USA were the people are worked to death.
We're down to about 2.5% growth, but the absolute number of new cases is not really diminishing. I have a model that's probably not much sillier than the IHME model and probably much less silly than Trump's cubic model. It shows we'll get down to 0 growth in mid to late June. At that point we'll have had about 120,000 cases but we won't have overwhelmed the hospitals.
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