Updating a post from several days ago, about whether US COVID-19 cases are increasing because there's more testing or because there's really more cases independent of testing.
Most of what I read, other than about the Grand Epidemiologist, has the experts saying cases are increasing more so than testing is increasing.
First, here are some numbers on testing, US-wide. I'm not recording the numbers every day, so the number for a given date is the average for that date and the date with data before it. In other words, I just interpolate between the dates with data:
Here is the same interpolation for cases/test, which I think is easier to intuit than my previous tests/case:
So while cases were definitely declining relative to the number of tests administered, that decline had almost stopped, while the number of tests had been holding (about) the same.
I think this is good proof that rising cases aren't simply an artifact of increasing testing. And reading the news, it seems to coming from from Arizona, Texas, Florida and Georgia. And a few other states. All states that ignored the science a couple of months ago. Or rather, all states whose leadership ignored the science a couple of months ago. All states being let down (for example, by ending federal funds for testing, which is insanity) by federal leadership today, at the highest level.
So many have died and there are so many whose health has been permanently altered that there should be a Truth and Reconciliation process when this is all over. Or something.