Tuesday, July 05, 2011

Arctic Ice is at a Record Low

PIOMASS has an updated figure for Arctic ice volume (from a new model version), and it continues to shrink rapidly:

Here's another way to look at it, which shows that even though ice extent is currently about the same as 2010 and the record-setting year 2007, ice volume is noticeably lower now:

The new model has a slightly lower anomaly trend: -2.9 ± 1.0 Kkm3/decade, although 2011 started the year about 2.3 Kkm3 lower than 2007 and has maintained that difference. At that rate, and using 7.0 Kkm3 for the 2007 minimum, the Arctic would be ice-free (at its lowest point in the yearly cycle) in just 12 years.

And it looks like the downward trend is accelerating in the last decade, so it could be ice-free before that.

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