Saturday, May 16, 2015

The Pause is Ending

The Pause (seepage or not; real or not) looks to be ending. Here is the amount of warming in the previous 10 years (120 months), according to NASA GISS:

So in the last 120 months the surface has warmed by +0.08°C. If the rest of 2015 is the same as its first four months, this will be +0.17°C by the end of the year, and set an annual record by a whopping 0.11°C.

Of course, that's a sizeable if. But, with the El Nino, it's not clear the remaining months won't be higher than those so far.

PS: Labeling this "numerology" gets me out of calculating error bars, statistical signficance, and all that. Just like 99.8%* of all blog posts.

* This number is also numerological -- I guessed. See how easy this is?

PPS: Using the UMaine reanalysis data for the first half of May, my guess for GISS's anomaly for the first half of May is +0.82°C. Past months at this point have changed by up to ±0.1°C, but on average about half that (in absolute value). But my guess for April (+0.66°C) was not especially good (actual GISS value was +0.75°C), so caveat emptor.


tonylearns said...

WUWT and Spencer say.07 anomaly. Assuming the base range is different, but still seems like a big discrepancy

Harry Twinotter said...

The graph appears to show 4 years of data, not 10?

Jon said...

@Harry - DA was a bit thrifty with his description of what he did. What he means is that the rightmost data point in the graph, for April 2015, is determined by the 120 months of data from May 2005 through April 2015 and similarly for the earlier parts of the graph. Presumably what's shown is the trend based on ordinary least squares over each 120 month period, with some kind of polynomial smoothing .