Tuesday, December 01, 2020

Solar Cycle 25 Off to a Good Start

Solar Cycle 25 (which, OK, started in Dec 2019) just had two big monthly jumps in monthly average daily sunspot number (SSN), from 0.7 in September to 14.4 in October to 34.0 in November. Here's how things look:

The sun is going to disappear soon, or something, bringing global warming to an abrupt halt while making a laughingstock of climate models everywhere. Or so they say.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how this cycle compares to the one just before it, SC 24, which was anomalously weak. But even another Maunder Minimum wouldn't have much effect on global temperatures -- only about -0.3 C or so by 2100, say climate models:

"On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth," G. Fuelner and S. Rahmstorf,  Geo Res Lett vol. 37, L05707 2010.

"Increased greenhouse gases enhance regional climate response to a
Maunder Minimum," Song et al, Geo Res Lett vol. 37, L01703 (2010) 

"What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?" Gareth S. Jones, et al, JGR v 117, D05103 (2012) doi:10.1029/2011JD017013, 2012.

See also:

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