Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Temperatures in the Near-Future

Skeptical Science links to a relatively simple demonstration by John Nielsen-Gammon that shows, once again, how the recent haitus in surface temperatures is due to La Nina.

Also, earlier Dana at Skeptical Science did something very clever: knowing the dependencies of surface temperatures on the variables that were multiply regressed by Foster and Rahmstorf, he took the predictions for ENSO, solar insolation, and CO2 for the short-term future and predicted surface temperatures from those. Absent a major volcanic eruption, they look to be at or near records:
As Table 1 shows, 2012 may break the temperature record, though the prediction is well within the margin of error. Thus if the El Niño doesn't form as soon or as strong as expected, or if solar cycle 24 stalls, or if one of the factors not included in this simple analysis (such as aerosols or clouds or other ocean cycles) acts in the cooling direction, 2012 will probably not break the record.

However, all three of the major temperature influences will be in the warming direction in 2012 as compared to 2011, assuming the El Niño develops as predicted. All three may also be in the warming direction in 2013 as compared to 2012, again with ENSO being the main question mark. Thus it appears quite likely that 2013 will break the surface temperature record, and quite possibly by a large margin, with a solar cycle peak and possible El Niño year. There is also a reasonable chance that both 2012 and 2013 will break the surface temperature record.
These are predictions worth watching. If they come true, my guess is that deniers will go back to questioning the validity of the surface stations, which curiously seem to be of sufficient quality to detect a lack of warming but not to detect the presence of warming.

This would be a good time to give my "entertaining" guess for the April UAH lower troposphere anomaly:

UAH LT April 2012 anomaly prediction = +0.26°C

If this value is accurate, it would be the 4th-warmest April in their 34-year old record. I was almost spot-on for March, but I suspect that was just luck. We'll see.


lolwot said...

"which curiously seem to be of sufficient quality to detect a lack of warming but not to detect the presence of warming."

and sufficient quality to detect a ~60 year cycle

and sufficient quality to compare the rate of warming in the early 20th century to the latter

The surface records are sure accurate when convenient

Paul S said...

My prediction, back at the beginning of April, was 0.28K.

Annually, I predict that this year will be the 3rd warmest in the UAH analysis, so >0.25K, <0.4K. ENSO is very dominant in the TLT records, hence the big gap between two recent El Nino years (1998 and 2010) and normal ones.

In the surface temperature datasets I'd suggest about 50/50 chance of a record.

Paul S said...

RSS is out now, with a 0.33K anomaly: http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

Typically that would mean UAH should be about 0.35K.