Monday, June 15, 2015

Comparing Recent El Ninos

Here's how 2015 is stacking up. Data here.

Today GISS gave their global anomaly for May: +0.71°C. That makes it the second-warmest May, after last year's +0.79°C. It also means my guess of +0.83°C was pretty far off.....

Based on the first half of June, my guess so far is it's a record for ANY month ever that's in the records (+0.93°C). But the global surface has cooled considerrably since early in the month, by about 0.4°C, and too I'm now a little leary about this simple method of using climate reanalysis data, and, even though I make adjustments when new data comes in, I'm not getting better with time....

and when I'm wrong I tend to be more wrong on the high side:

No comments: