Friday, June 19, 2020

US COVID-19 Cases Now Increasing Again

Cases of COVID-19 are declining steadily in Canada:


but not in the US, perhaps because we are led by a moronic, narcissistic dumbass president who has lost all interest in the deadly pandemic and who thinks people are wearing masks to "signal disapproval of him."  US Cases increasing again:


(Why can't Trump and Pence get COVID-19 and get shuffled off the stage?) Still however, deaths in the US from COVID-19 continue to decrease


because, well, because of a lot of reasons, which Slate tried to write about but couldn't because it's complicated and again there there are a lot of reasons

Personally, I am wearing a mask everywhere I go, and Oregon's governor is requiring them again as of Wednesday, that everyone wear a mask in public places here in the populated counties of Oregon. Today there were people not wearing masks; come Wednesday, I will be a PITA and say something to them. Cases in Oregon are spiking, mostly because some workers in seafood processing plants on the coast contracted the disease and it quickly spread through their plants. I don't know what that means for the Willamette Valley here, and as someone with several leading indicators, I don't want to find out. I fear that if I get COVID-19 it will be lights out for me.

13 comments:

Entropic man said...

I'd put my money on lag as the main reason why death rates haven't risen yet.

On average it takes about 11 days from reporting to death. The rise in 7 day average for cases began around June 16th.

I would venture a guess that the 7 day average for deaths will begin to increase from June 27th.

Entropic man said...

An outside view.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53088354

David in Cal said...

Cases are rising because tests are rising. More asymptomatic cases are being discovered. We're now averaging around half a million tests daily. Yesterday, there were 579,115. The huge number happened because our President knows how to actually accomplish things. His "public-private partnership", his jaw-boning, and his bluster worked.

(OTOH, I disagree with Trump's dismissive attitude toward masks. From everything I've read, masks provide significant protection against spread of the virus.)

Cheers

Entropic man said...

David in Cal

Easy to test. If you are correct the daily new cases number should be diverging upwards away from the number of hospital admissions. Any data?

Entropic man said...

Then there's this.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2020/06/19/more-infectious-than-covid-19/#more-11388

Layzej said...

Cases are rising because tests are rising.

Test/day has been rising at a linear rate (about 5169/day) since testing began. A month ago cases/day was falling. Now they are rising. Why is increased testing resulting more new cases now when it previously resulted in fewer new cases?

David Appell said...

David, I think you're probably right -- I always forget this, don't I? I have limited data on testing, but I have a little, and I'll write about as soon as my cat gets back from the vet.

PS:

4/27/20 US tests/case = 5.6
6/19/20 US tests/case = 11.7

David in Cal said...

Entropic man - I agree that the re-opening is causing more cases than we would have had if the full shutdown had remained in place.

Cheers

Entropic man said...

David in Cal

The UK is about to do the same.😞

Layzej said...

Canada is opening up as well. Are we all fated to return to exponential growth?

David Appell said...

Layzej, I’m surprised to hear this. But the economic pressures must be huge.

OnymousGuy said...

It is not true that “Cases are rising because tests are rising.” Don’t take my word for it. Tamino (More Infectious than COVID-19)has discussed this very subject. I like these quotes:

“Hence the latest COVIDiot idiocy: the claim that ‘the increase isn’t because cases are on the rise, it’s only because we’re testing more.’ Those damn tests!..

The worst offender of course is Donald Trump, who is so addled he might actually believe we can overcome the disease by ignoring it. I’d rather not pay the millions of lives his “plan” will cost...

People who suggest that maybe cases aren’t really increasing it’s just increased testing, who go on facebook and twitter and blogs and repeat the stupidity without looking into it or even, really, thinking it through, aren’t just falling for one of the stupidest sucker moves of the Trump administration (which is saying a lot), they’re actively promoting that idea. They help Trump, the racist-in-chief rapist-in-chief, advance his murderous agenda on dealing with COVID-19. Trump’s agenda on COVID-19: save the wealth of his wealthy friends, let the people die.”

No reason to mince words.

Layzej said...

Layzej, I’m surprised to hear this. But the economic pressures must be huge.

I'm still hopeful that we can walk the line between restoring freedoms and keeping the case rate manageable. The results from the US experiment are not promising though. In some states it looks like there is a return to exponential growth. This is very disappointing. I'd half convinced myself that we'd developed some level of herd immunity.