Friday, March 27, 2020

Daily Deaths Peaking?

Update: These data may not be accurate. In particular, the last data point for each country is from WHO's spreadsheets, for March 27th. But March 27th isn't over yet.... Also, of course there was recently a day in the US without any deaths (the gap in the blue line; see below).

Also, WaPo says Italy "reported 919 coronavirus deaths in one day." Maybe that's today (3/27), or maybe it's yesterday (3/26). But WHO reports 685 deaths for Italy yesterday, and 660 today. They're using the John Hopkins database. I'm confused about which dataset is best.

Hmm, here are the daily increases in deaths for both Italy and the US. Both appear to be peaking.... I can accept that for Italy, but am very surprised the US shows the same trend:

PS: The gap in the US line is because WHO data showed no additional death that day, and for some mysterious reason Bill Gates' Excel won't take the logarithm of zero.


Thomas said...

If this story is true not everyone may be included in official numbers of deaths:

David Appell said...

Thanks. Besides the number, that's a horrible story that I never expected to read at a time like this.

Layzej said...

Minute physics has a good way to show whether we've left exponential growth:

They suggest to show number of new cases on the y axis using a logarithmic scale, and total number of cases on the x axis using a logarithmic scale.