Saturday, March 07, 2020

US Covid-19 Cases

This is data from just a few minutes ago. I guess you would call this super-exponential:


Ned said...

Yep, the growth rate was faster yesterday (33%, compared to 23% for the previous day). My estimate of Friday as the target for exceeding 1000 cases is looking conservative now. At today's rate it will happen Wed; at the average rate over the past few days it will be Thurs.

Also, according to the White House's published transcript, I mis-quoted Trump's remarks during his Feb 26 press briefing. Their version is slightly more insane than the milder version I remembered:

"you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done."

That was 10 days ago. The number of reported cases in the USA is now almost 500, and the number of actual cases is certainly in the 1000s.

Our so-called "president" is an incompetent fool.

Ned said...

The White House is now overruling the CDC, censoring its guidelines for the public:

NEW YORK (AP) — The White House overruled health officials who wanted to recommend that elderly and physically fragile Americans be advised not to fly on commercial airlines because of the new coronavirus, a federal official told The Associated Press.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention submitted the plan this week as a way of trying to control the virus, but White House officials ordered the air travel recommendation be removed, said the official who had direct knowledge of the plan.

Ned said...

Last comment for now (sorry, DA).

Where the USA is today (400 known cases, rising 25% per day) is where Italy was less than two weeks ago on Feb 26.

Now Italy has 5900 cases and in the hardest hit regions the Intensive Care system is on the brink of collapse. Much of northern Italy is now under complete lockdown, and there is a nationwide shutdown of schools, universities, bars/nightclubs, and most public gatherings including religious services.

The head of the Lombardy region's Intensive Care system expects 18,000 cases by March 26, including 3,000 cases needing Intensive Care.

Since the pandemic in the USA seems to be running about 2 weeks behind conditions in Italy, that gives an indication of what we might be facing in the USA one month from now.

Layzej said...

Keep in mind that the population of Italy is only 1/5 that of USA.

Entropic man said...

I've been browsing US news channels. There seems to be a lot less clear reporting and a lot of bickering between politicians.

Why is the President using a visit to CDC to be rude about the Mayor of New York?

Just watched Kevin McCarthey on Fox News.

Blaming China and the Democrats for delays, but light on what is actually happening.

Is this just par for the US course, with proper preparation under way? Or are the government trying to cover a genuine lack of preparation?

ScruffyDan said...

A lot of the surge in confirmed cases is due to the ramping up of testing, not a sudden surge in the numbers of those infected.

David Appell said...

Ned, you don't have to apologize for making multiple comments. Your's are always informative and helpful. Comment as often as you like :-)

David Appell said...

entropic man wrote:
"Is this just par for the US course...."

It's par for Trump. Incredibly sad and pathetic.

David Appell said...

ScruffyDan wrote:
"A lot of the surge in confirmed cases is due to the ramping up of testing, not a sudden surge in the numbers of those infected."

Yes, there's always this difference between the number of "cases" vs the number of those infected. I wonder how they counted patients in the past, say during the Spanish flu -- or, rather, how historians estimate the number of infected. (That flu didn't start in Spain, but they got saddled with the name.)

Entropic man said...


"A lot of the surge in confirmed cases is due to the ramping up of testing, not a sudden surge in the numbers of those infected."

In which case you have a substantial pool of undiagnosed cases in circulation.Time to move from containment, which has clearly failed, to the delay and mitigation phases.

Entropic man said...
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Entropic man said...
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Entropic man said...

"how historians estimate the number of infected?"

In retrospect the number of people infected with Spanish Flu was:-

number of deaths * 100 / % mortality rate

Using conservative figures Spanish Flu had 20 million deaths and a 3% death rate, giving about 20 million*100/3 = 666 million. Out of a world population of 1.8 billion that was a 37% infection rate.

If you assume that the number of Covid-19 deaths reflects the number of cases three weeks ago, then in mid February the US had 21 * 100/3.4 = 617 cases. As of 17th February there were 18 recorded cases.

Entropic man said...

As you can tell from the repeated updates I've been doing some research and calculations. Bottom line is that testing is probably spotting no more than half of the people infected.If you want to know the actual number of infected to date, double the reported cases.

As of 0015 UTC on the 9th March that was 110,000 reported cases worldwide and total infections around 220,000.

For the US that is 538 reported cases and about 1078 infected.

Ned said...

I'm not sure that your numbers are consistent with each other. If there were 617 cases in mid-February (3 weeks ago) one would expect there to be around 5000 cases now, based on the typical 6-7 day doubling rate. Either 617 (3 weeks ago) or 1078 (today) is probably off by a factor of 4 somewhere.

Entropic man said...

The UK have tested 20 thousand people out of 70 million.

The US has tested 1500 out of 300 million.

Are you so far behind the UK that testing is not necessary, or are you struggling to do enough testing?