Thursday, March 19, 2020

US Cases Per Capita Now on Par With World's

But deaths are still significantly lower:

US new daily cases close to 3,000 -- about 45% in one day:

Canada's new cases up 'only' 22% yesterday; Italy 13%.

I should mention that my graphs show the data of when I recorded the data, not the actual date the new cases and deaths occurred. (WHO has those.) So my graphs are labeled about a day ahead. 


Layzej said...

Canada's new cases up 'only' 22% yesterday

I suspect we'll make up for it today. Our numbers were quite high the previous day and quite low the day before that. We seem to be hovering at about 33%.

Layzej said...

There are two ways to look at the death rate. deaths/cases or deaths/outcomes. On the latter the world has a 10% death rate while USA and Canada are >50%.

David in Cal said...

Layzej - I believe the former is an under-estimate of the true ultimate value, because a certain percentage of cases will eventually die. The latter is a big overestimate of the true ultimate value, because a large percentage of cases will eventually be cured.


Layzej said...

The truth is somewhere between the two. They converge on the truth as you get towards the end.

Ned said...

In the first thread about the US/rest-of-world comparisons -- which was less than one week ago -- Entropic Man wrote:

"The vast majority of both cases and deaths occurred in China's Hubei province over the past two months. They are coming out of their epidemic with few new cases and deaths.

"The US is in the early stages of their epidemic, with a very slow rate of testing. The number of cases and number of deaths due to the coronavirus are therefore both being underestimated.They will get a LOT more numerous over coming weeks.

"Your 'doing a lot better than the rest of the world' is an illusion."

We see that's correct ... except that as testing increases, the USA is "catching up" to the rest of the world in a matter of days, not weeks.

Ned said...

The rate of increase of (known) cases has sped up slightly in the USA, while slowing down in Italy. On a per-capita basis, the USA is about two weeks behind:

graph (note log-scale Y axis)

This is probably the week when things will start to get rough at hospitals in the Seattle area.

Taiwan has also seen an uptick recently.