If people didn't understand the exponential function before, they certainly do now!
Seems like there was a remarkable drop in the # of (USA) deaths yesterday, at least in the numbers from Worldometers. And today's numbers seem to be starting out more slowly than one would expect (though most of them tend to arrive later in the day).
Also, yesterday's number of US new cases declined a bit yesterday. In fact, this figure was close to flat for the last 4 days. We may have actually reached a peak, I hope...
Deaths won't peak until well after cases peak.Cases presumably haven't reached a "peak" but might have reached an *inflection point* were they are rising more slowly.FYI, here is a new paper with projections for each (US) state's peak date of hospital resource demands and deaths:Projections: http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections Paper: http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/research_articles/2020/COVID-forecasting-03252020_4.pdf For the nation as a whole, they project the peak in hospital demand (and deaths) ca April 15th. The models suggests an eventual total of 82,000 deaths nationwide.The earliest peaks are VT and NY (before April 7). The latest will be WY, WI, KY, VA, SC, FL ... after April 28.
Caveat when reading that article ... looking at the data table, the confidence intervals around pretty much every figure are quite wide, so there's a lot of uncertainty.
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