Tuesday, March 31, 2020

US Deaths Consistently Lagging Cases by About Two Weeks

So here are US cases and US deaths on a logarithmic scale:

The lines are quite parallel -- here's by how much: the number of days total deaths are behind total cases (to the nearest day):

It's been at 15-16 days now for two weeks. I'm beginning to understand how the US might see 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. And quickly -- perhaps over the next two to three weeks.


Layzej said...

This is promising, if he is right: Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’

Layzej said...

I guessed there would be 200,000 confirmed cases in USA by March 29th. Looks like I was 3 days early. I guessed 20,000 in Canada by that time. It's now looking like we won't hit that milestone until April 5th.

Hopefully we both see things slow down now that we've had 2 weeks of social distancing.

David Appell said...

Somewhere back there i said there would be about 341 K US cases on 3/31... I was quite wrong about that.... Can't find it now, but I was off by a lot, probably about a week. This is my mea culpa.

Layzej said...

I'm happy to be wrong in this direction :)

Things are slowing a bit. Maybe not enough. I had really hoped we'd see the number of new cases start to fall after two weeks of social distancing. The rate of growth has slowed, but there is still a steady rise.

Ontario has signaled it will release 'stark' COVID-19 projections today.

Layzej said...

The Ontario report projects 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in the province over the next two years.
Just 13 critical care beds remain available among the 153 ICU beds in one region and just 22 ICU beds available among the 163 in another. Numbers continue to rise. Bleak.