Wednesday, July 01, 2020

Arizona: Everything is Rising, Including Deaths

Link. (Sorry. I can't get this shit stuff to embed right unless I just cut what I want -- too much else often comes along.)


pete said...

Arizona does have rising deaths to go with its fast-growing cases.

Tuesday is always an important day for covid stats as the data have 1 week periodicity for most states (with minimum normally on Monday) and definitely for the country as a whole. Today's stats show a big growth in cases for the country and the spiking states and the death stats are becoming more focussed. Looks like TX, AZ, NV, AR, MI(?), SC , FL(small), OR(?) are showing increase in fatalities. CA is basically constant.

A simple plot to make is a cross plot of deaths vs cases, summing each one over the previous 14 days after a 3 point median filter. It's a little easier to interpret than the noisy daily fatality plots.

David Appell said...

OK. When you make this plot send it to me and I'll post it.

David in Cal said...

The economy is recovering faster than people expected, while the US 7-day moving average number of deaths continues to trend down. That is a darn good situation. It's better than what Trump's opponents were warning a month or two ago.


Layzej said...

What were the warnings a month or two ago?

Layzej said...

There are about 131,000 deaths in the USA. The only projections I can find are for between 75,000 and 120,000 deaths by July. USA is doing worse than the worst case scenario of the most alarming model.

Are you able to find a projection that USA is doing better than?

David Appell said...

David: Please, tell me how this is a good economic situation: