Here are NOAA's latest El Niño predictions, for the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies. (Recall, the 1997-98 El Niño saw these anomalies peak at 2.8°C, about twice these model projections.) They've increased a few tenths of a degree compared to those of a month ago.)
NOAA now puts the chance of an El Niño later this summer at "exceeding 65%."
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