Friday, July 31, 2020

Trump: "If no testing, few cases"

As someone wrote on Twitter, Herman Cain would be alive today if only he hadn't gotten tested for COVID-19. 

 Trump really can't be this stupid, can he? So what's his angle?


David in Cal said...

David - Trump says many dumb things, but the comment you quote is entirely reasonable. The high number of reported new cases is real. However, the US does around 2 to 3 times as much testing per capita as Western Europe IIRC. The higher frequency of tests is one factor in the US high number of reported positive test results. Bear in mind that, according to the CDC, there may be ten times as many untested infected people as as have been tested and found infected.


David in Cal said...

The case fatality rate in the US is 3.4%, Europe is 9%, according to Kayleigh McEnany today. That could mean that US medical care is far better than Europe's. However, I think it more likely reflects the fact that the US's higher level of testing finds a lot more infected people who are asymptomatic or whose infection is too slight to put them at risk of dying. This point supports Trump's comment that high amount of testing in the US is a significant factor in our high number of discovered cases.


David Appell said...

David, come on, Trump's claim that there'd be "few cases" with no testing is absurd no matter how you slice it.

You're right, the US has done more testing per capita than any other country. Here's a comparison graph, with positivity rates:

Some positivity rates.

US 6%
France 20%
Brazil 30%
Peru 50%

But still, the really damning fact is that the US has 4% of the world's population and 25% of COVID deaths.

David in Cal said...

David - Trump was taking his argument to the limit to make a point. He's literally correct that there would be no known cases if we did no testing. But, his point was that the high US rate of testing is one reason the US has so many known infections. That's a valid point to make.

Your final statement is not quite correct (although it's often repeated by our biased media). A correct statement is that "the US has 25% of REPORTED covid deaths". Because of countries that fudge their numbers, and because of countries that don't do enough testing, nobody knows how many actual covid deaths there have been in the world.

BTW - Democrats tend to blame Trump for anything bad. However, one can make an argument that Dems deserve more blame. The high US mortality rate is pretty much confined to states and cities governed by Democrats. Also, leading Democrats opposed certain good steps that Trump took. See


David Appell said...


Trump's ignoring the point that we have 4% of the world's population and 25% of COVID deaths. You can't spin that. What says other countries fudge their numbers? It's magical thinking. If they don't do enough testing they may well have *MORE* COVID deaths than are reported.

As if Republicans didn't attack and blame Obama for everything bad. Get real.

But Trump is especially bad. He has shown no leadership at all during this pandemic. He hardly even tries. All he does is sit on his ass and watches television and tweets.

You know the comeback to your argument that "the high US mortality rate is pretty much confined to states and cities governed by Democrats" as well as I do. First the virus isn't finished yet, and deaths are rising rapidly in red states. The states where the virus first took hold are not the same demographically as where it's rising now. They were big cities with many dependent on public transportation and close-in apartment housing. All the more reason why AZ, TX, FL etc, with more suburban living, less downtown living, should have been safer than they are, if their governors had taken the right steps. But they would not, and now look at them.

Trump provided no support to governors and made them fight each other for equipment. It's ridiculous and borderline criminal. Trump had tens of thousands of deaths on his hands and will go down in history as the president who lacked the courage to fight in this war.

J. D. said...

Also, leading Democrats opposed certain good steps that Trump took.

Your link is just a political advert. Here is what really happened.

“We don’t have a travel ban,” Klain said. “We have a travel Band-Aid right now. First, before it was imposed, 300,000 people came here from China in the previous month. So, the horse is out of the barn.”

“There’s no restriction on Americans going back and forth,” Klain said. “There are warnings. People should abide by those warnings. But today, 30 planes will land in Los Angeles that either originated in Beijing or came here on one-stops, 30 in San Francisco, 25 in New York City. Okay? So, unless we think that the color of the passport someone carries is a meaningful public health restriction, we have not placed a meaningful public health restriction.”

Don't forget that after that he wasted weeks making inaccurate statements about it just being the flu and the death rate would soon be zero. That likely cost lives because believe it or not some people actually trust what he says. Many of those are elderly with health issues.

David Appell said...

PS: David, nothing personal!

nowadaysclancycantevensing said...

Florida now has more cases of Covid-19 than New York.

DavidinCal spreads his right wing partisan hack bullshit spin chronically.

David in Cal said...

nowadays - you're correct about the number of cases, but look at the mortality.
Number of deaths: Florida 6843. New York State 32,765.

BTW Florida has a slightly larger population than NY

The reason for so many New York deaths may be found in this article:


On a personal level, my 97-year old mother-in-law lives in a nursing home in Florida. Her facility has been very careful to keep infected people out. If she had been housed in New York, she'd probably be dead.


David in Cal said...

David - I agree that it would have been better if Trump's travel bans had been tighter. But, Democrats like Joe Biden opposed his travel bans. The Democrats were more wrong than Trump.

I was glad to see that you agree with me that
"If they [certain countries] don't do enough testing they may well have *MORE* COVID deaths than are reported."

That's the point I was trying to make


David Appell said...

But it's hard to really pin anything on Biden, since he's not in charge of anything and he's not making serious decisions about anything.

No matter the quibbles about death numbers, no spin is going to approach the US's 25% of global deaths with 4% of the population. The US has done abysmally, criminally, scandalously. There's just no doubt about this. Quibbling about the edges changes nothing. The blood is on Trump's hands, and on his face, his feet, his torso, his arms, legs, and everywhere else. He's bathed in it.

David Appell said...

David, there is a point at which you have to accept reality, as which you have to stop spinning and recognize reality and admit that Trump had done the worst job and objectively failed at managing the coronavirus.

I honestly don't know why you want to protect this guy instead of doing a completely rewipe. A la Nixon. What can you possibly gain by staying invested in him? Cut your losses and free yourself from his taint and failureship. (Is that a word? It should be.)

How much more humiliation should you/will you accept?

J. D. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
J. D. said...

Whitmer vetoes bill that would have prevented COVID-19 patients housed in nursing homes.

Ah, The ever reliable instapundit which not only selects articles which it knows right wingers will like it also includes their slant on the story just in case anyone is in any doubt what the take home message is meant to be. Note the inflamitory language i.e "deliberately seeded". No wonder I see Trump supporters online saying that Democrats are deliberately killing old people because that's the message they are being fed. They blame these deaths on democratic governers but more than half of deaths in Florida are in nursing facilities. Also when New York was badly hit there was a shortage of PPE, there was very limited testing available for staff, and it was still mostly thought that people who were asymptomatic were rarely infectious. The states that are being hit now also should have learnt lessons from those who were hit hard first.
Regarding the story instapundit linked to. The headline they've quoted sounds dramatic and bad for Whitmer but that seems to be based on the quote from Republicans in the article. If you read the whole article they have the Michigan Senior Advocates Panel saying
"This legislation puts seniors at greater risk by failing to provide the enhanced and qualified staffing needed for their protection,” said Linda Cook MacDonald, Chairperson for the Michigan Senior Advocates Council. “We support the governor’s veto of Senate Bill 956 and express our gratitude to her for protecting the health and safety of all Michiganders during this difficult and unprecedented time.”

Layzej said...

Trump had done the worst job and objectively failed at managing the coronavirus.

Apparently there was a political decision not to proceed with a national response to COVID: "a member of Mr Kushner's team suggested a national plan was unnecessary and would not make sense politically because the virus had hit blue states hardest."

"The political folks believed that because it was going to be relegated to Democratic states, that they could blame those governors, and that would be an effective political strategy," -