Always Close to a Vaccine

 “We’re very close to a vaccine.” 

-- Trump, February 25, 2020

via The Atlantic, an article worth reading in full.

538.com's Poll of Polls, and a Trump Coup

Here's a close-up of 538.com's "poll of polls," where they average the national polls available to the public. You can see why Trump is panicking:

Here, they "simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often," and Biden wins 86% of the time, Trump 14%. I'm not exactly sure what this simulation means, but I'm guessing it's some combination of all the 50 state polls, taken within their margins of error. Still doesn't look good for Trump.

The best thing for the country will be if Trump is defeated soundly and thoroughly, and senate Republicans too, to wash away the disease that Trump has brought to both the presidency and the country, and send his sycophants tumbling away in the rapids where they never again attain their footing. The greater the defeat the less trouble Trump can start in the days after the election, though Ross Douthat of the NY Times, a true conservative, isn't worried:

Our weak, ranting, infected-by-Covid chief executive is not plotting a coup, because a term like “plotting” implies capabilities that he conspicuously lacks.

He explains his thinking:

He lacks popularity and political skill, unlike most of the global strongmen who are supposed to be his peers. He lacks power over the media: Outside of Fox’s prime time, he faces an unremittingly hostile press whose major outlets have thrived throughout his presidency. He is plainly despised by his own military leadership, and notwithstanding his courtship of Mark Zuckerberg, Silicon Valley is more likely to censor him than to support him in a constitutional crisis.

His own Supreme Court appointees have already ruled against him; his attempts to turn his voter-fraud hype into litigation have been repeatedly defeated in the courts; he has been constantly at war with his own C.I.A. and F.B.I. And there is no mass movement behind him: The threat of far-right violence is certainly real, but America’s streets belong to the anti-Trump left.

So if you judge an authoritarian by institutional influence, Trump falls absurdly short. And the same goes for judging his power grabs. Yes, he has successfully violated post-Watergate norms in the service of self-protection and his pocketbook. But pre-Watergate presidents were not autocrats, and in terms of seizing power over policy he has been less imperial than either George W. Bush or Barack Obama.

There is still no Trumpian equivalent of Bush’s antiterror and enhanced-interrogation innovations or Obama’s immigration gambit and unconstitutional Libyan war. Trump’s worst human-rights violation, the separation of migrants from their children, was withdrawn under public outcry. His biggest defiance of Congress involved some money for a still-unfinished border wall. And when the coronavirus handed him a once-in-a-century excuse to seize new powers, he retreated to a cranky libertarianism instead.

All this context means that one can oppose Trump, even hate him, and still feel very confident that he will leave office if he is defeated, and that any attempt to cling to power illegitimately will be a theater of the absurd.

Trump's Audience Today and Hitler

Trump is campaigning speaking at the White House today, and his audience is a conservative group called Blexit, which WaPo describes as "a campaign to convince African Americans and other minorities to leave the Democratic Party." Lining up to get in, naturally very few of them were wearing masks. 

The leader of Blexit is Candace Owens, who went on a rant when a police woman stopped her and her husband at Whole Foods for not wearing a mask. But more to the point today, she once said that Hitler would have been OK if he had just stuck to Germany. Really.

Here is video of Candace Owens' full answer on nationalism and Hitler pic.twitter.com/NfBvoH8vQg

— John Whitehouse (@existentialfish) February 8, 2019

The White House clearly has no problem inviting this dumb woman to today's rally.

Oregon's Warming

Oregon has warmed about 2.5°F (1.4°C) since the beginning of the 20th century, according to NOAA data. 

The last 10 years have been the warmest on record, as have the last 30. In this graph, "MA" = moving average:

The warmest year so far was 2015, followed by 1934, 2014, 1992 and 2004.

Oregon's climate, though, is strange, because the state is sharply divided into two different climate zones depending on which side of the Cascade Mountains you're looking at. (They bisect the state from north to south.) The west side, where most of the population is, with the cities of Portland, Salem and Eugene, is rainy much of the year with the forests almost rain forests. The east side of the mountains, where the major city is Bend, is huge, and dry, high-altitude, scrub forests. It reminds me a lot of New Mexico. So I don't know how meaningful a statewide average is -- one really needs averages for each of the two regions to get a clear picture. 

Michigan Sheriff Downplays Domestic Terrorists

I'm a little under the weather and don't feel like blogging much at the moment -- and who can keep up with reality anyway -- but this interview with a sheriff in Michigan who knew some of the militia armed gang members just arrested for allegedly plotting to kidnap the governor is...disturbing.

“It’s just a charge.” We have a serious police problem. https://t.co/i5L1WRiqgY

— Francis Wilkinson (@fdwilkinson) October 9, 2020

#ProudBoys Hashtag Taken Over by LGBTQ Photos

This is real genius. George Takei, Star Trek's original Mr Sulu, organized a takeover of the #ProudBoys hashtag late last week. Now the hashtag is full of photos like these below on Twitter. The Proud Boys could think of no more clever way to respond than their stereotype would suggest. Those Kids just can't take a joke.

The Proud Boys have not responded kindly to the hashtag takeover. On Parler, a conservative social media app, followers of the Proud Boys group expressed outrage, with many commenting on images of the tweets with homophobic slurs, according to Forbes. One member created a meme of Takei making a white-supremacist gesture and another replied using Nazi terms like “final solution.”

#ProudBoys We make one hell of a family! pic.twitter.com/LEuuubbfpF

— garth lescaudron (@LescaudronGarth) October 5, 2020

Pretty much the best day I've ever had at work...#ProudBoys pic.twitter.com/p5VOFSjMMp

— Stephen Quinn (@CBCStephenQuinn) October 5, 2020

#ProudBoys Standing Back and Standing By pic.twitter.com/BEJm1oyYyU

— Why Not Trump (@TrumpNotAgain) October 5, 2020

Excited for our wedding! 6 years of growth and love. Wouldn’t have it any other way. #ProudBoys pic.twitter.com/O4SOPXPSoD

— Christopher Ubiadas (@TheRealUbiadas) October 5, 2020

Lots more here.

Do You Feel Lucky, America?

Our Sociopath-in-Chief is a goddamn lunatic who is utterly incapable of thinking of anyone but himself.

The lying to Hannity, the going to New Jersey when he knew he had been in close personal contact with an infected person (Hicks), the fake photographs and signing a blank piece of paper, making his doctor's lie to the press about his condition, the pathetic joy ride yesterday past a crowd on the highway and disregard for his security's health -- still not enough damage done, apparently. Now he tweets this madness:

I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020

Don't be afraid of Covid. Don't let it dominate your life. I feel better than I did 20 years ago! So, so terrified of showing even a tiny human worth of vulnerability or weakness. Such an misunderstanding of the character of a leader. 

There's nothing he won't say if he thinks it helps him get reelected.

If there's nothing to fear, why are there over 209,000 deaths in the US? Trump doesn't think to ask -- it's all about him. Don't let it dominate your life. So apparently don't worry about catching the virus, possibly dying, or suffering lingering heart issues, lung issues, brain issues, and more. Trump would rather pretend all is well for the sake of his own reelection. Feels better than he did 20 years ago. Sure.

This is infuriating. He has ignored and lied about the pandemic from the start, and now has clearly learned absolutely nothing and lies even more. 

This is infuriating. Trump is already responsible for...tens of thousands (?) of deaths, and this nonsense will cause even more.

He doesn't recognize that not everyone has a 30-person medical team treating him or access to the latest therapies or a White House that is set up for everything he would need in a hospital. He's merely switching beds. Fred Kaplan at Slate:

On Sunday, as he stepped out of his suite at Walter Reed Medical Center, where he’s being treated for the coronavirus, President Donald Trump made one of the most unwittingly revealing remarks in his entire term in office. “I’ve learned a lot about COVID,” he told reporters, then added:

Apparently, the deaths of more than 200,000 Americans, the infection of 7 million, the many briefings from the nation’s most prominent health specialists, the profound toll that the virus has taken on every aspect of life worldwide—none of this made much of an impression.* It was only when he caught the bug, sweated with fever, gasped for air, and suffered who knows what other sensations we haven’t been told about, that he realized COVID-19 was “a very interesting thing.”

Real doctors keep saying they're utterly mystified:

The talk of the president’s release from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center came as Conley and two other physicians treating Trump gave an upbeat but incomplete characterization of his condition. Outside doctors said they were mystified by what they said was an inconsistent portrayal of the president’s illness as relatively mild despite the aggressive mix of treatments he is getting....

Robert Wachter, chairman of the University of California at San Francisco’s department of medicine, said any patient of his with Trump’s symptoms and treatment who wanted to be discharged from the hospital three days after their admission would need to sign out against doctors’ orders because it would be so ill-advised.

“For someone sick enough to have required remdesivir and dexamethasone, I can’t think of a situation in which a patient would be okay to leave on day three, even with the White House’s medical capacity,” Wachter said.

“Absolutely not,” William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University’s medical school, said of the idea of sending Trump back to the White House on Monday.

Medical consensus has emerged that covid-19 patients are especially vulnerable for a period of a week to 10 days after their first symptoms. Some patients who seem relatively healthy suddenly deteriorate, either because of the virus itself or an excessive immune response that can cause damage to several organs, including the heart.

The New York Times reports:

Nearly One-Third of Covid Patients in Study Had Altered Mental State: 

The hospitalized patients showed signs of deteriorating neurological function, ranging from confusion to coma-like unresponsiveness, new research indicates.

Do you feel lucky, America? 

Nothing Sublime, Just the Ridiculous

Despite being at last Saturday's Republican superspreader event, US Attorney General Bob Barr doesn't plan to self-quarantine. What's he going to do, show up at work tomorrow as if everything's normal?

Still many Republicans don't get it and are holding indoor, largely maskless events.

A Trump campaign spokesman is still mocking Biden for wearing masks. Also, "Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), despite his own positive test result, criticized mask mandates while saying masks are 'certainly not a cure-all.'"

2016: "At a rally in Manheim, Pa., Oct. 1, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump mocked Democratic rival Hillary Clinton stumbling during a 9/11 ceremony after she had been diagnosed with pneumonia. 'She's supposed to fight all these different things, and she can't make it 15 feet to her car,' Trump said."

Then, of course, there was the time when Trump mocked a disabled reporter. That should have been the end of his campaign right there but 40 percent of Americans apparently couldn't be bothered. 

Business Insider op-ed headline: "Trumpworld delighted in cruelty. Now that Trump has COVID, it demands empathy."

One of these recent events is not like the other: compare the House of Representatives’ masked-up, physically distanced #NotoriousRBG Lying In State ceremony to Trump’s maskless, crammed #SuperspreaderACB Rose Garden party. pic.twitter.com/Qn8JJq8T7f

— Christine Pelosi (@sfpelosi) October 3, 2020

Jaime Harrison, the Democratic candidate for Senate in South Carolina running against Lindsey Graham (and tied doing very well) brought his own plexiglass shield to their debate last night:

He said near the beginning of the debate, “Tonight I am taking this seriously. That’s why I put this plexiglass up. Because it’s not just about me — it’s about the people in my life that I have to take care of as well. My two boys, my wife, my grandmother.” The Times wrote, "Mr. Graham, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, may have been exposed to the virus earlier in the week by Senator Mike Lee of Utah, who serves on the committee and has tested positive."

Trump tried to show he was working yesterday from the hospital, but he signed a blank piece of paper. He was photographed in two different rooms, one with his jacket on and one with it off, but they were taken just 10 minutes apart:

The photos released by the WH tonight of the president working at Walter Reed were taken 10 minutes apart at 5:25:59 pm and 5:35:40 pm ET Saturday, according to the EXIF data embedded in both @AP wire postings that were shared by the White House this evening. pic.twitter.com/EzeqIkGdf7

— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) October 4, 2020

Was This The Republican Superspreader Event?

Here's a picture from the Rose Garden announcement at the White House last week announcing the president's choice of nomination to the Supreme Court vacancy. Except for the press, who you can see sitting/standing in the back, these would be almost all Republicans, if not 100% Republicans:

Maybe 10% have a mask on. Maybe. These are the idiots running the United States. What else can you call this but a cult? 

TMZ also has video from the aftermath of the announcement, showing people mingling:

You can see several people who now have the coronavirus -- Chris Christie, Kellyanne Conway, Senator Mike Lee. All older, all at serious risk if they get COVID-19. They shouldn't even have been there. 

Trump Has COVID-19

So now Trump has the disease, and is going to the hospital on the advice of doctors. With presidents and health, it's usually a safe bet to assume the situation is worst than they're telling us. Of course, the president will get all precautions and the best care, and I hope he and his wife will both have only a mild case of the disease and recover quickly and fully. 

Going one day from symptoms to the hospital is startling. As Scientific American writes, "Trump's COVID Infection Puts Him in Multiple High-Risk Categories." 

The president is age 74, male and heavy—all factors linked to more severe cases of the illness

Hope Hicks, a senior advisor to the president who had apparently been by his side, tested positive on Thursday, and was on Marine One with him (the presidential helicopter) and then his plane (where she was isolated), but Trump went ahead to the campaign event in New Jersey that evening and didn't wear a mask. Later, at a more exclusive soiree where he mingled shoulder-to-shoulder with people, he didn't wear a mask or, obviously, social distance. He may now become a superspreader.

Trump tempted fate and science, and lost. He mocked Joe Biden at the debate for wearing a mask. He also mocked Joe Biden's son for having a drug addiction problem. Biden reply was perfect: that he loved his son. I read that when Trump's first son was born and his wife suggested they name him Donald, Jr., Trump asked "But what if he's a loser?" 

Frank Bruni in the NY Times captures the complexities of his feelings at the moment:

It’s a measure of the cynicism that has infected American politics — and, yes, me — that among my initial reactions to the news that President Trump had tested positive for the coronavirus was: Are we sure? Can we trust that? A man who so frequently and flamboyantly plays the victim, and who has been prophylactically compiling ways to explain away or dispute a projected election loss to Joe Biden, is now being forced off the campaign trail, which will be a monster of an excuse.

I couldn’t help thinking that.

I couldn’t help thinking, too, about karma, and I immediately felt and still feel petty for that. Trump has spent much of the past six months, during which more than 200,000 Americans died of causes related to the coronavirus, downplaying the pandemic, flinging out false reassurances and refusing to abide by the very public health guidelines that officials in his own government were fervently promoting.

He didn’t wear a mask. He encouraged large gatherings — including the Tulsa, Okla., rally that Herman Cain attended before falling sick with the coronavirus and dying, and his big convention speech — at which hundreds and even thousands of people, many without any facial covering, packed in tight. At the first presidential debate on Tuesday night, he mocked Biden for so often wearing a mask, suggesting that it was a sign of … what? Timidity? Weakness? Vogueishness? Moral vanity?

I would like to think this will finally make a difference in how this country treats this disease and how we all treat each other, and look out for one another, but sadly I don't think that's possible for about half the people in this country. That's how far we've gone.

Proud Boys and White Supremacy

From Karen Belew in the NY Times:

"Watchdog groups and analysts have debated about how to classify the Proud Boys. Its members explicitly disavow white supremacy in a bid for respectability, but its ideology is clearly white supremacist: Photographs of members flashing the white power sign, the presence of members at white power events and at rallies and expert analyses of the group’s online content make this clear."

Jack Black Performs His Legendary Sax-A-Boom with The Roots

WaPo: Trump sets the tone for the worst presidential debate in living memory

Trump sets the tone for the worst presidential debate in living memory

Insults, interruptions and disrespect mark the first encounter between Trump and Biden.

By Dan Balz

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-and-biden-stage-the-worst-presidential-debate-in-living-memory/2020/09/29/9cdbeb56-027e-11eb-b7ed-141dd88560ea_story.html

Fascist President Wouldn't Condemn White Supremacists

Oh my god, in tonight's Trump told the racist, anti-Muslim, anti-immigration, misogynistic Proud Boys to "stand by."

President Donald Trump hesitated when asked to condemn white supremacists during the first presidential debate on Tuesday evening.

During a segment dedicated to race, Chris Wallace, the moderator, asked Trump, "Are you willing, tonight, to condemn white supremacists and militia groups and to say that they need to stand down?"

Trump tiptoed around the question and instead doubled down that "almost everything I see is from the left wing, not from the right wing."

Wallace pushed back on Trump, along with former Vice President Joe Biden, and again asked him to address right-wing violence.

"What do you want to call them?" Trump asked. "Give me a name, give me a name."

"Proud Boys," Biden said, referring to a far-right group.

"Proud Boys, stand back and stand by," Trump responded.

Stand by for what? Trump is again lying about Antifa being a major threat. (The other day he grouped them with the Klu Klux Klan as terrorist threats.)

And the Proud Boys clicked their heels together and tonight said, like good brownshirts, “Standing down and standing by sir.”

A Disaster of a Debate

Update afterward: From what I'm seeing, it seems the line of the night was "Will you shut up, man?" 

Trump will not stop interrupting Biden when it's not his time and Chris Wallace won't control him. Wallace is failing in his role as moderator and this isn't a debate, it's more like a barroom argument. I'm turning it off as I have work to do, and will read about it in tomorrow's papers. Trump can't help acting like a child. He's hyperactive. Or maybe he's on something.

Election 2020

The Bidens Paid $288,000 in Federal Income Tax in 2019

They released their 2019 income tax forms today. Taxable income was $945 K. It's all laid out in their tax forms.

I wonder how much the Trumps paid. Anybody happen to hear?

Arctic Sea Ice Comparison

(Now I forget where I got this. Sorry.)

$161,950 vs $0

@BarackObama who wants to raise all our taxes, only pays 20.5% on $790k salary. http://t.co/bqF26mQf Do as I say not as I do.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 13, 2012

Have we ever had a POTUS before @BarackObama who earned over 1/3 of his income from foreign sources and paid taxes to another country?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 12, 2012

"@conservativeJT: @bluejoni @realDonaldTrump Trump is an American that will pay more taxes in one year than you pay in your entire life.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 28, 2013

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/28/do-i-say-not-i-do-trumps-past-tax-commentary-is-cast-whole-new-light/

Moving Day

 

Useful Obama Suggestion

(Clic on the Pic)

Thought This Was Funny

pic.twitter.com/3dtcH1tUVw

— Anarchist 💣Federation ❤🖤 (@AnarchistFed) September 26, 2020

Stock Market: Trump Brags, But Obama Was Better

Since @realDonaldTrump 's bragging about the #stockmarket : increase in the #Wilshire5000 during #Trump 's admin-to-date: +$10.1 trillion, =10.1% per year on average, as of today. During #Obama 's last term, +$8.1 T, = avg 10.9% per year.

— David Appell (@davidappell) September 26, 2020

Thomas Friedman Also Expects Trump Delegitimizing the Election and Civil War

Thomas Friedman also has some serious concerns about a second civil war in America and Trump delegitimizing the election. He says he's never been more afraid in his life. Click the picture for the video.

 

‘You Really Believe That?’: Anderson Cooper Stunned When NYTimes' Tom Friedman Predicts America Stands on the Brink of 'Potential Second Civil War’https://t.co/hzqdfsXPRw

— Mediaite (@Mediaite) September 25, 2020

Breaking: Americans Say, 57-38%, Next Prez Should Choose SCOTUS Seat

 Via WaPo: 

The Post-ABC poll, conducted Monday to Thursday, finds 38 percent of Americans say the replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died last week, should be nominated by Trump and confirmed by the current Senate, while 57 percent say it should be left to the winner of the presidential election and a Senate vote next year.

That there's a right mighty gap.

Three Protests, Five Miles, Rainy Day

The Proud Boys (not men, I guess) are protesting in Portland tomorrow, despite being denied a permit on the grounds of the coronavirus. They announced plans to hold their protest the outskirts of town in Delta Park, a complex of athletic fields. I've been there many times watching my nephew play lacrosse, but alas this year there are no lacrosse, soccer or softball players. The left-wing is demonstrating, also permitless, in a park about three miles away, and BLM about two miles further beyond.

Why do I feel those distances are going to evaporate, even with the forecast calling for the day to be cloudy with showers, winds 5-10 mph, high 67 Fahrenheit. Because there have to be confrontations for the iPhones, the Androids and the evening news. This is Oregon, so everyone has pretty good rain gear, so everyone will come ready to protest for the entire day. 

The Oregon State Police and the County's Sheriff's Office have refused to help with crowd control because of the city's ban on the use of tear gas. If they can't use their toys -- toys banned in warfare by the Geneva Protocol of 1925 -- they ain't gonna play.

With the way protests are going around the country this summer and this past week in Louisville, it won't surprise me if guns get drawn and someone gets shot, or three. Or someday not far off, twenty or thirty. That's where things are headed, it seems to me. There are 400M guns in America and lots of open carry laws, even for assault guns, and the idiot legislators with their gun ideologies probably weren't smart enough to foresee the day when things turned like this. (Or, even more frightening, they were.) Once this starts -- and it seems to me this summer was a fair to middling shove off -- it's hard to stop it, especially if this election is a mess, as it seems it will be, thanks to Commander Chaos. A lot of people, especially the clowns on the extreme right wing, are just itching to dress up in their Walmart commando gear and play Red Dawn in real life that they've all been playing some version of virtually since they were kids. 

I don't like where things seem to be heading. Worse, a good friend of mine, a retired Presbyterian minister, agrees with me that something like a civil war is coming and America is slowly but surely circling the drain. She's the last person I would have expected to hear that from.

The Cure

"The only cure for boredom is curiosity. There is no cure for curiosity."

— Dorothy Parker, American writer (1893-1967)

No Peaceful Transfer of Power

Wow. Trump is again declining to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the election. In light of RBG's death and another coming stolen Supreme Court justice, this takes on a whole new meaning. Has a US president ever said such a thing before, let alone this many times, let alone this close to the election? AP: 

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump on Wednesday again declined to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the Nov. 3 presidential election.

“We’re going to have to see what happens,” Trump said at a news conference, responding to a question about whether he’d commit to a peaceful transfer of power. “You know that I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots, and the ballots are a disaster.”

Last month Trump told Sean Hannity

This year, with a judge no longer watching, the Republicans are recruiting 50,000 volunteers in 15 contested states to monitor polling places and challenge voters they deem suspicious-looking. Trump called in to Fox News on August 20 to tell Sean Hannity, “We’re going to have sheriffs and we’re going to have law enforcement and we’re going to have, hopefully, U.S. attorneys” to keep close watch on the polls. For the first time in decades, according to Clark, Republicans are free to combat voter fraud in “places that are run by Democrats.”

which sounds exactly like something a fascist would do, does it not? 

And The Atlantic goes on about what you've all heard, the doubt Trump has sown about mail-in voting, about votes counted after Election Day, about foreign interference (the nerve), and more. It's worth reading.

There's no way there isn't going to be a big mess after the day of the election, unless Biden wins very big. And probably not even then. Probably not even then.  

Added: The Majority Leader from the Great State of Hypocrisy twote

The winner of the November 3rd election will be inaugurated on January 20th. There will be an orderly transition just as there has been every four years since 1792.

— Leader McConnell (@senatemajldr) September 24, 2020

Trump Just Admitted He's Trying to Steal the Election

 From the NY Times:

WASHINGTON — President Trump said on Wednesday that he wants to ensure confirmation of a replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg by the Nov. 3 election because he expects disputes over who won the White House to be resolved by the Supreme Court.

“I think this will end up in the Supreme Court,” Mr. Trump told reporters at a White House event on social media, adopting an argument for quick action made by his ally, Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas. “And I think it’s very important that we have nine justices,” instead of the eight seats currently filled.

The president again asserted without evidence that Democrats were trying to rig the election and said he wants a high court that will agree with him. “This scam that the Democrats are pulling — it’s a scam — the scam will be before the United States Supreme Court,” Mr. Trump said.

Five of the eight current court members were appointed by Republican presidents, including two by Mr. Trump. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., who was appointed by former President George W. Bush, has on a few occasions sided with the liberals, which could potentially mean a 4-4 split.

Mr. Trump made clear he is counting on whomever he appoints for Justice Ginsburg’s seat to support him and that he wants to be declared the winner by an overwhelming majority if the results go to the Supreme Court.

“And I think having a four-four situation is not a good situation, if you get that. I don’t know that you’d get that. I think it should be eight-nothing or nine-nothing. But just in case it would be more political than it should be, I think it’s very important to have a ninth justice.”

— Peter Baker

An Interview While Working From Home

Last week Gretchen Goldman, a scientist from the Union of Concerned Scientists, went on CNN to discuss NOAA's atrocious hiring of the notorious climate denier David Legates. Anyway, on left is how she appeared on camera. At right is how it looked as she was on camera, a photo taken by her husband. She swears she's wearing shorts, not underpants, as she told Slate in a (funny, insightful, parental) interview.

Oregon Party Registrations

Just for fun, here are the Oregon party registration numbers as of April 2020:

There's an "Independent Party" by name, so if you want not to be a member of any party, you have to register as unaffiliated.

Good Question About RBG Replacement:

Conversation at the NY Times:

Bret Stephens: ...which just reminds me of another way in which Trump is not conservative. After all, if he’s so confident he’s going to beat Sleepy Joe, why not wait till January?

Gail Collins: Hahahahaha.

Why Trump is a Sociopath, Latest Evidence

 Jonathan Chait, today, in New York magazine:

There’s a term for a person who views other humans purely as instruments for his own advancement, and is unable to conceive of the idea of caring about them independent of his own self-interest: “sociopath.” The United States has had some terrible presidents before, but probably never a sociopathic one. When his own aides warn the public that he does not care if the people he is tasked with helping live or die, we should take their warnings with the utmost seriousness.

This comes via today's Daily Howler. But it also comes from an aide to VP Mike Pence, which I've been meaning to get to. This is from Olivia Troye, a former senior aide to Vice President Mike Pence and member of the administration's Coronavirus Task Force. She spoke on Friday, saying she will vote for Democratic nominee Joe Biden and encouraged other Republicans to do the same.

To recap the most striking part: She calls it 

“...shocking to see the president saying that the virus was a hoax, saying that everything’s okay when we know that it’s not. The truth is, he doesn’t actually care about anyone else but himself. He made a statement once that was very striking. I never forgot it because it pretty much defined who he was, when we were in a taskforce meeting the president said, ‘maybe this COVID thing is a good thing. I don’t like shaking hands with people, I don’t have to shake hands with these disgusting people.'”

Can you imagine saying such a thing!? Robert Lewis Stevenson [is said to have] written, "All men have secret thoughts that would shame hell," but to say this out loud!! As President of the United States, in an important meeting?!?!

Of course there is more evidence, from Trump's niece, a trained clinical psychologist, that he is a sociopath. As the Daily Howler notes, the best-selling book by Yale psychiatrist Bandy X. Lee. And all the weird and disturbing things we've seen Trump do and tweet for years now. The constant lying. Constant and obvious. His strange denial of facemasks. The strange, anti-productive tweets like "LIBERATE MICHIGAN." The admission to Woodward that he intentionally lied to America about COVID-19. The book by Bolton. They all portray him as a lying dummy who understands nothing, and lies to cover up his ignorance. His lies that he has a health care plan just ready to go, two weeks away, which he's been saying since 2016. How f--king stupid does he think Americans are? It shows how stupid he is to think this is how stupid Americans are. 

He simply doesn't care. About, apparently, anything. Except himself. Whatever's good for him. And that's exactly why he's a sociopath.

"...maybe this COVID thing is a good thing. I don’t like
shaking hands with people, I don’t
have to shake hands with
these disgusting people."

Talking Referees

No other sport I know of has this kind of ref-player relationships:

Refs on the mic are just priceless. 🤣 #StanleyCup

New episodes of Quest For The Stanley Cup every Wednesday.
🇺🇸: @espn+
🇨🇦: https://t.co/0rxEOXoEJM pic.twitter.com/8Xk8orWp07

— NHL (@NHL) September 18, 2020

COVID-19 Cases on the Rise Again

After two months of a decline in COVID-19 cases -- thought never getting back to the level of the first peak -- it looks like cases are increasing again. Who to blame? One obvious group are the idiots who won't wear masks, like the Idiot-in-Chief, the idiots who go to his rallies and cram in together without wearing masks, the Target store idiots (fined), North Dakota maskless idiots, and the entire crowd of ignorant Americans who are ruining this country and bringing about its downfall. From the NY Times:

When is it time to get out?

Talk on Fire and the Warming Climate

Some of you might enjoy this talk.

You have to register: move your pointy thing over there and clicky click. 

Wednesday, September 23, 2020 6:00 PM - 7:00 PM

On Fire: The Escalating Consequences of a Warming Climate

On Fire: The Escalating Consequences of a Warming Climate, with Park Williams, PhD, and questions from Alex Halliday, Director

Join us online for a lecture by Park Williams about how climate change is fueling dangerous wildfires--and what we can expect in the future.

The Speaker:

Park Williams, PhD is a Lamont Associate Research Professor of Biology and Paleo Environment at Columbia University’s Earth Institute - Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. He is a bioclimatologist focused on the impact of climate variability and climate change on the living world. His work seeks to improve understanding of drought and its effects on terrestrial systems, including ecosystems, the carbon cycle, agriculture and humanity

Comparing GISS and NOAA for August Temperatures

I said I might compare the GISS and NOAA global surface temperatures by bringing them to a common baseline period, and I really thought I would be too lazy to do that, but low-and-behold I had already done this on my spreadsheets and forgotten.

Both datasets start in 1880, and the common baseline period I had calculated with is the 30-year period 1880-1909. 

So with that the GISS anomaly for August 2020 is 1.08°C and the NOAA anomaly is 1.17°C. 

People, we are in the range of 1.1°C of total global warming and quickly heading into the 1.2°C range. (And that's not even comparing to the true pre-industrial period, pre-1850 period, or maybe pre-1750, depending.)

Warming is stacking up fast. Easily 0.2°C/decade now. And accelerating. 

GISS's 30-yr slope for the global surface temperature is now 0.23°C/decade. Ten years ago it was 0.18°C/decade; ten years before that, 0.17°C/decade. In July 1990, 0.14°C/decade. July 1880, 0.05°C/dec.

Should have put that in a table or graph, sorry.

But there's no doubt warming is accelerating. Someone tell Trump. I'm sure it will make all the difference to the scientific heathen, to the climate arsonist.

Scientific American Endorses Biden

They elaborate here. First paragraph: 

The evidence and the science show that Donald Trump has badly damaged the U.S. and its people—because he rejects evidence and science. The most devastating example is his dishonest and inept response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which cost more than 190,000 Americans their lives by the middle of September. He has also attacked environmental protections, medical care, and the researchers and public science agencies that help this country prepare for its greatest challenges. That is why we urge you to vote for Joe Biden, who is offering fact-based plans to protect our health, our economy and the environment. These and other proposals he has put forth can set the country back on course for a safer, more prosperous and more equitable future.

Biden Calls Trump a "Climate Arsonist"

Big bonus for whoever on Biden's staff came up with that label!

...later in the briefing, the president was directly challenged to accept the reality of climate change by California's secretary for natural resources, Wade Crawfoot.

"If we ignore that science and sort of put our head in the sand and think it's all about vegetation management, we're not going to succeed together protecting Californians," Crawfoot told the president.

"It'll start getting cooler, you just watch," Trump replied.

"I wish science agreed with you," Crawfoot said.

"I don't think science knows, actually," Trump shot back.

What a stooge.

Some White House reporter, please please please ask Trump to explain why it will start getting cooler.

While you're at it, ask him to explain the theory of manmade global warming in one minute or less. Please.

NASA GISS: 4th-warmest August

NASA GISS says August was the fourth-warmest August since the data begins in 1880, +0.85 C relative to 1951-1980.

Maybe I'll do the calculations to compare that to NOAA. Maybe I won't. 

Warmer Augusts were, in order, 2016, 2019 and 2017.

In his Monthly Temperature Update (sent by email; subscribe here), James Hansen says

2020 thus stumbled in its horserace with 2016 for record warm year (upper right figure), perhaps dragged down by the developing La Nina (upper left), as we cautioned in our April Temperature Update.  It’s still possible for 2020 to catch 2016, though, as the late months in 2016 were also cooled by a La Nina.

The important question concerns the acceleration in global warming in recent years, as global temperature in the past five years has been well above the nearly linear trend of warming in the past 50 years.  We will discuss the relation between the accelerated warming and climate forcings in a future communication.

It was extremely hot in the large portion of Central Europe and the Southwest United States in August.  Death Valley, California reached a record high 130⁰F (54.4⁰C).  This heat wave continued into September and is contributing to the severity and spread of wildfires in the western states.

and gives these graph:

2016's La Nina was mild, and this year's year-to-date temperature is already below 2016's, with a deeper La Nina forecast for the rest of the year, so if I had to guess I'd say a record high temperature 2020 looks unlikely. We'll see.

Globe Had 2nd Warmest August, 3rd Warmest Summer

Just in from NOAA: globally August ranked as second-highest (after only 2016), with an anomaly of +0.94°C above the 20th century average.

North America had the warmest August on record (records start in 1880), with a whopping anomaly of +1.52°C. as did the Northern Hemisphere (+1.19 C).

The meteorological summer ranked third-highest (after 2016 and 2019), with an anomaly of 0.92°C above 1901-2000.

Fire Situation Update

The novelty of all this has worn off and now it's just getting sad and depressing. 

This afternoon the AQI (Air Quality Index) here was 553, "Hazardous." That's the highest I've seen for here, or for Portland. They say the west coast has the worst air in the world. I'm not even letting my cats go outside.

This image in the NY Times shows the western fires and, in Oregon, those in the Cascade Mountains sending their smoke west, dumping it straight into the Williamette Valley. 

About 1 M acres have burned in Oregon, or 1,500 sq-miles. That's about 120% of Rhode Island's area, or 1.5% of Oregon. That last number really surprises me. Oregon is vast -- the 9th largest state in the country. 

There are reports of 7 dead and dozens missing. This story is utterly heartbreaking, and it's just from down where I just to live a year and a half ago.

Ordinary COVID masks don't keep smoke particles out, they say, only N-95 masks. I'm trying not to go anywhere -- the smell and taste of smoke in the air is really strong. After a few hours of it you get a headache and dry throat. My sister works in Oregon City, a suburb of Portland, and though her company gave her and N-95 mask yesterday she decided not to go there (she does home PT care). OC was only under Level 2, "Get Set" order, but she said many people were leaving anyway, and her colleagues who live there took several hours to get out and somewhere safe, like Gresham on the eastside of Portland, what would normally be an hour drive at worst. 

While there was very little humidity here Tuesday and Wednesday, it picked up and Thursday was 71% yesterday (relative humidity). It's supposed to stay high, and rain some Monday and Tuesday. That would be great. The smoke is also blocking the sun. The high here today was only 63; the normal high is 78. I had to turn my heat on for the first time this season. 

Trump approved emergency aid for Oregon yesterday, despite all the contretemps about the protesting and rioting in Portland. The governor said they had a good conversation.

Here is a really good article about Oregon in Slate by Oregon resident Rebecca Schuman, "There Are Two Oregons, and They’re Both on Fire."

I'm not doing anything to help, which I feel kind of guilty about.

That's enough.

Comment About Trump

 ...on this article by Maureen Dowd:

Ha - Not Surprising - Ha ha - Not Surprising At All

And isn't THIS typical of our fubar situation??

Gallup - Bias in Others' News a Greater Concern Than Bias in Own News

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• About 7 in 10 Americans are concerned about bias in media other people consume
• Fewer than one in three worry more about bias in their own news media
• Younger, more educated Americans are more concerned with bias in others' sources

"WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Six in seven Americans think there is at least a fair amount of political bias in news coverage in general, and over half say the same of the news source they rely on most, according to a recent Gallup/Knight Foundation study. Yet 69% of Americans say they are more concerned about bias in the news other people consume than its presence in their own news (29%)."

The inability to think critically is American's greatest fault.

A Bit of a Fire Update

It continues to be another bad day here. The sky isn't as orange, but definitely smokier. I'm sneezing every half-hour, far worse than any allergies I've ever had, and it's 3 pm and I've got a headache. 

The Air Quality Index (PM 2.5) here is 407, "Hazardous." 

Oregon Governor Kate Brown: Wildfires here could be the "the greatest loss of human life and property" due to wildfires in Oregon history. 

More suburbs of Portland are being told to evacuate -- Canby, Molalla, Oregon City -- which is almost unthinkable. I think of those places as largely suburbs surrounded by agricultural fields. 

My sister is a physical therapist who does home visits in Oregon City. Today her boss gave her an N-95 mask to wear all day just because of the smoke there. 

There are small towns that have been decimated in eastern Washington as well. [Well, far worse, really. "Decimated," comes from the Romans -- "deci," meaning a-tenth.]  

I'm sorry, I'm not very up-to-date on the situation in California.

Lots of people are noting the role of climate change in these fires, but I think that's a little premature. Yes, we're had a drought, and high temperatures. But we're also had high winds (though not today, at least here deep in the (Williamette) Valley), which don't follow from climate change. So I think we need to let the scientists do their attribution studies and give their results in a few months. I doubt that's a popular opinion.

Here's the view from a main thoroughfare in my town, Keizer, Oregon, when I was out earlier today:

Mololla, OR:

"The best political ad ever made"

Update on the Situation in Oregon

It seems like there are fires everywhere now. Here is ashe on my car's roof, noticeable but not too bad:

My sister said a couple of her colleagues in Oregon City have been told to evacuate. Oregon City is a suburb of Portland! It's really hard to imagine fires coming in that close.

Southern Oregon is getting it the worst. The town of Medford (pop 82k) is threatened and nearly everyone has been told to evacuate, and the small towns of Phoenix (pop 4,600) and Talent (pop 6,500) a few miles south are reported to be "pretty well devastated."

There are lots of personal videos on the Twitter hashtag #Oregonfires, if you're interested. The Washington Post just came out with another article, quoting the governor as saying the towns of Detroit, Blue River, Vida have also suffered significant damage. Blue River (pop 202) is in my county, but about 40 miles east where one enters the Cascade Mountains.

Gov. Brown said more than 300,000 acres are burning across Oregon, and that this could be the deadliest wildfire disaster in state history.

WaPo says:

"The wildfires come after a record-shattering heat wave and amid human-caused climate change that is heightening fire risks, along with temperatures, in the West. These blazes are being driven by strong, dry, offshore winds that are causing extreme fire behavior, which can produce everything from mushroom cloud-like plumes of smoke that reach 40,000 feet in height, to vortexes that make it impossible for firefighters to contain an advancing fire."

But the governor is also saying these are "once in a generation events," so perhaps we should wait on attribution until scientists get to studying this in detail in the coming months. For example, also from WaPo:

“This event is unprecedented. I’ve talked to people who have been in fire for 20, 30, 40+ years and they’ve never seen anything like this before. Not this many large, rapidly spreading wildfires across such a broad region,” tweeted Nick Nausler, a fire weather specialist with the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.

At least here the skies aren't quite as gray as yesterday, or quite as pink. And there is almost no wind.

BLM Beatdown Here Last Weekend

This was here in Salem last weekend. I don't know what transpired before it, but I doubt it was nothing. Did it require this response? The increasing standoffs between leftist groups and right-wing groups is worrying and clearly ramping up lately.

Proud boy chases down another BLM supporter, beats them down. Police make arrests pic.twitter.com/J9YlhpoRnO

— Sergio Olmos (@MrOlmos) September 7, 2020

Eerie Skies Here in Salem This Afternoon

 Today was one of the strangest days I've ever experienced. I thought the sky was odd at 8 am, but by mid-afternoon, when I had an appointment across town, it was really strange, with a little ashe falling from the sky:

The governor has declared a state of emergency, and the highway through the mountains is closed just 12 miles east of Salem. I heard there was ashe falling from the sky further south in Eugene.

After my appointment I had to run an errand across the (Williamette) valley, and it wasn't until 4:30 pm that I came out of the building. The view was stunning; it looked like it was at 8 pm. My eyes stung, and the smell of smoke was noticeable in the air. Here's a picture from my iPhone, which like my pictures from this morning, came out much lighter than it appeared to my eyes. I'm not sure why.

The sky looked much darker, almost like a heavy partial eclipse, maybe 60% (comparing it to 2017 total eclipse here). [Can't believe it's been 3 years already!]

When I turned on the [radio] news, the national media is putting all of their attention on the fires in California. OK. They've had a 10-year drought. Their fires seem to be getting worse every year. Whole towns have been burning down. Of course, Trump doesn't give a shit, or even notice -- he thinks people should just rake harder. Someday I hope trees get to vote.

Feynman Anecdote

"When physicist Richard Feynman was asked which now-deceased person from history he would most like to speak with, and what he would say, he said: “'My father. I would tell him that I won the Nobel Prize.'” 

 -- Mark Jackson, https://theconversation.com/the-not-so-noble-past-of-the-nobel-prizes-18939

Weird Skies Here from Fires to the East

 It looks very strange here this morning. What would ordinarily be a beautiful blue sky morning is instead a reddish-gray, almost like dusk. We had a big wind storm last evening and night, and it blew in a lot of smoke from fires in the Cascade Mountains east of here. We're also in a severe drought, so a lot of dust got blown up as well. People just 25 miles east of Salem have been ordered to evacuate, and those 16 miles east have been told to get ready in case they have to evacuate. It's stunning to think the fires could come this far west. 

Here's my view to the northeast, taken at about 7:45 am:

To the southeast, towards the sun, it looks a little better:

The situation doesn't look good here, or for much of the West:

Northwest Oregon is currently under an extremely critical fire weather warning. This is only the second time ever that the Storm Prediction Center has ever issued one for anywhere within the state Oregon. The other time was August 29, 2006. pic.twitter.com/DUJOacxCvc

— Oregon Climate Office (@ORClimateSvc) September 7, 2020

I'm not going to look up the statistics right now, but, especially for California, which now seems to be getting serious fires yearly, this does not bode well. 

8:30 am update - skies still look the same here; the sun isn't visible at all, and the street lights are still on.

The Daily Howler

Recently David in Cal recommended the blog The Daily Howler, written by Bob Somerby, which I've been reading since. It's interesting and well written, and usually has an interesting perspective on what's happening. It's not usually predictable, either. For example, the other day it published this:

All the lying on its own by itself tells you there's something seriously wrong with Trump. (Now at least 20,055 false claims in 1,267 days, as of July 9, 2020 -- an average of almost 16 per day.) Now we can't believe a single thing Trump says, which is a real shame for a President of the United States. 

Of course there's clearly much more wrong with Trump, and even his defenders know he's an asshole. His niece, trained in psychology, wrote a whole book about it. Look at the country now compared to what it was four years ago -- it's seriously damaged politically, economically, in public health, in public trust, in racial justice, in economic equality, in peaceful streets. Trump is the difference, and his incompetence, especially with respect to the pandemic, is the difference. His racism and arrogance and incompetence are the difference, not Democratic mayors, who were there before Trump but without all the protesting and rioting. 

--

Anyway, The Daily Howler is worth reading, in my opinion too.

Arctic Sea Ice Update

 It's September and I was going to write about Arctic sea ice, but this tweet does the job:

With a couple weeks left to go in the melt season, 2020 has already secured its place as the 2nd lowest Arctic sea ice extent on record.

Probably won't challenge 2012 for the all-time record though. pic.twitter.com/4VoNyHc2Tm

— Robert Rohde (@RARohde) September 4, 2020

Vonnegut Quote

"The British mathematician Stephen Hawking, in his 1988 bestseller A Brief History of Time, found it tantalizing that we could not remember the future. But remembering the future is child's play for me now. I know what will become of my helpless, trusting babies because they are grown-ups now. I know how my closest friends will end up because so many of them are retired or dead now . . .

"To Stephen Hawking and all others younger than myself I say, 'Be patient. Your future will soon come to you and lie down at your feet like a dog who knows and loves you no matter what you are.' "

-- Kurt Vonnegut, preface to 25th-anniversary edition of Slaughterhouse-Five